Sha Tin · 2021-11-21

Race 8

Group 2 GOOD 2000m Course B+2 7 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-21 was Group 2 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. RELIABLE TEAM, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with KA YING STAR second and GLORIOUS DRAGON third. The winner led throughout. The 1.9 favourite GLORIOUS DRAGON finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.03.86

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	RELIABLE TEAM Wire to wire B 2.03.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	2	123 lb	17.0	N
2	2	KA YING STAR Closed strongly V/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	6	123 lb	6.6	N
3	4	GLORIOUS DRAGON Closed strongly XB/TT Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	3	123 lb	1.9	1-1/2
4	3	COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	5	123 lb	11.0	1-1/2
5	5	RUSSIAN EMPEROR B B Shinn · D J Whyte	B Shinn	D J Whyte	1	123 lb	9.5	1-3/4
6	6	SAVVY NINE Closed strongly B/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte	H Bentley	D J Whyte	7	123 lb	48.0	2
7	1	PANFIELD TT K Teetan · A T Millard	K Teetan	A T Millard	4	128 lb	3.7	2-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick GLORIOUS DRAGON (25.0%) finished 3rd — the winner RELIABLE TEAM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	GLORIOUS DRAGON	25.0%	4.00	3	1.9
2	3	COLUMBUS COUNTY	22.3%	4.48	4	11.0
3	1	PANFIELD	18.6%	5.39	7	3.7
4	2	KA YING STAR	17.7%	5.66	2	6.6
5	7	RELIABLE TEAM	8.4%	11.89	1	17.0
6	6	SAVVY NINE	4.3%	23.17	6	48.0
7	5	RUSSIAN EMPEROR	3.7%	26.76	5	9.5

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 173

PLACE

2 17

4 11

7 33

QUINELLA

2,7 371.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 23

2,7 95

4,7 46.5

FORECAST

7,2 1,044

TIERCE

7,2,4 2,525

TRIO

2,4,7 200

FIRST 4

2,3,4,7 272

QUARTET

7,2,4,3 11,193

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 127

A2 —

7TH DOUBLE

1/2 18.5

1/7 237.5

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