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Sha Tin · 2021-11-21

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-21 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CAPTAIN WIN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with PARTERRE second and HORSESAIN BOLT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite COPARTNER AMBITION finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.21.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CAPTAIN WIN Closed strongly 1.21.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 4 15.0 N
2 11 PARTERRE B- K Teetan · A T Millard 6 6.6 N
3 10 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 5.3 3/4
4 4 CRAIG'S STAR Closed strongly B H Bentley · K H Ting 11 42.0 2
5 2 BEAUTY LEGACY Closed strongly E/TT J Moreira · J Size 9 8.4 2-1/4
6 5 GORYTUS XB/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 7 12.0 2-1/2
7 8 COPARTNER AMBITION Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 8 4.4 3-1/4
8 7 ROYAL PRIDE TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 1 45.0 4
9 13 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly SR M L Yeung · C W Chang 14 104.0 4
10 9 DRAGON FORTUNE TT C Schofield · F C Lor 3 7.5 5-1/2
11 1 CIRCUIT STELLAR TT1 A Badel · A S Cruz 13 12.0 5-3/4
11 12 CIRCUIT MIGHTY R Maia · K L Man 5 80.0 5-3/4
13 14 SPEED FAY FAY Led early B M Chadwick · T P Yung 10 11.0 6
14 3 KING TOURBILLON B1 K C Leung · Y S Tsui 12 78.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CAPTAIN WIN2. PARTERRE+0.05L3. HORSESAIN BOLT+0.75L4. CRAIG'S STAR+2L5. BEAUTY LEGACY+2.25L6. GORYTUS+2.5L7. COPARTNER AMBITION+3.25L8. ROYAL PRIDE+4L9. KYRUS UNICORN+4L10. DRAGON FORTUNE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick COPARTNER AMBITION (18.6%) finished 7th — the winner CAPTAIN WIN was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 COPARTNER AMBITION 18.6% 5.39 7
2 2 BEAUTY LEGACY 16.3% 6.15 5
3 10 HORSESAIN BOLT 14.4% 6.95 3
4 9 DRAGON FORTUNE 11.5% 8.68 10
5 11 PARTERRE 7.2% 13.96 2
6 1 CIRCUIT STELLAR 6.0% 16.69 11
7 7 ROYAL PRIDE 5.7% 17.66 8
8 6 CAPTAIN WIN 4.3% 23.35 1
9 5 GORYTUS 4.2% 23.53 6
10 14 SPEED FAY FAY 4.2% 23.94 13
11 4 CRAIG'S STAR 2.5% 39.48 4
12 12 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 2.0% 49.96 11
13 3 KING TOURBILLON 1.9% 53.43 14
14 13 KYRUS UNICORN 1.3% 74.46 9
COPARTNER AMBITIONBEAUTY LEGACYHORSESAIN BOLTDRAGON FORTUNEPARTERRECIRCUIT STELLARROYAL PRIDECAPTAIN WIN — wonGORYTUSSPEED FAY FAYCRAIG'S STARCIRCUIT MIGHTYKING TOURBILLONKYRUS UNICORN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 156

PLACE

6 46

10 18.5

11 22

QUINELLA

6,11 600.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 114.5

6,11 212

10,11 82.5

FORECAST

6,11 988

TIERCE

6,11,10 7,506

TRIO

6,10,11 1,237

FIRST 4

4,6,10,11 7,990

QUARTET

6,11,10,4 163,460

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,8/6,10,11 8,813

3 PICK 1

A3 22.5

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE

4/6 315.5

4/11 37