Sha Tin · 2021-12-05
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-05 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. AMAZING TEENS, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with TOYCOON second and SUPER FAST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite TOYCOON finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | AMAZING TEENS Closed strongly H/TT 1.48.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 4 | 18.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | TOYCOON Led early CP J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 6 | 4.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | SUPER FAST Closed strongly CP-/XB/TT1 R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 8 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 10 | 4.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | JOYFUL HEART CP/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 2 | 5.5 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | STAR OF GLORY B-/P1 B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 1 | 76.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | MAKE IT TURBO Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 9 | 10.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | DRAGON COMMANDER B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 5 | 9.5 | 9-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | OWNERS' STAR B M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 3 | 6.5 | 11-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | WITTY SCHOLAR M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 7 | 69.0 | 19-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | JOYFUL HEART | 26.9% | 3.71 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | TOYCOON | 24.3% | 4.11 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | SUPER FAST | 14.5% | 6.88 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | OWNERS' STAR | 8.1% | 12.29 | 9 |
| 5 | 9 | YES WE CAN | 8.1% | 12.34 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 7.6% | 13.20 | 8 |
| 7 | 6 | AMAZING TEENS | 5.5% | 18.06 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | MAKE IT TURBO | 2.5% | 40.14 | 7 |
| 9 | 4 | STAR OF GLORY | 1.4% | 70.44 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | WITTY SCHOLAR | 1.0% | 103.75 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 185.5
PLACE
1 31.5
5 13
6 51
QUINELLA
5,6 314.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 68
1,6 201.5
5,6 107
FORECAST
6,5 1,261
TIERCE
6,5,1 5,197
TRIO
1,5,6 613
FIRST 4
1,5,6,9 778
QUARTET
6,5,1,9 31,205
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 35
A2 —