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Sha Tin · 2021-12-05

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 10 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-05 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. AMAZING TEENS, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with TOYCOON second and SUPER FAST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite TOYCOON finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.48.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 AMAZING TEENS Closed strongly H/TT 1.48.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size 4 18.0 1/2
2 5 TOYCOON Led early CP J Moreira · P F Yiu 6 4.0 1/2
3 1 SUPER FAST Closed strongly CP-/XB/TT1 R Maia · K W Lui 8 10.0 2-1/4
4 9 YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · T P Yung 10 4.0 3-3/4
5 2 JOYFUL HEART CP/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 2 5.5 4-1/2
6 4 STAR OF GLORY B-/P1 B Shinn · C W Chang 1 76.0 4-3/4
7 7 MAKE IT TURBO Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall 9 10.0 8-3/4
8 3 DRAGON COMMANDER B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 5 9.5 9-3/4
9 10 OWNERS' STAR B M Chadwick · W Y So 3 6.5 11-3/4
10 8 WITTY SCHOLAR M L Yeung · D A Hayes 7 69.0 19-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING TEENS2. TOYCOON+0.5L3. SUPER FAST+2.25L4. YES WE CAN+3.75L5. JOYFUL HEART+4.5L6. STAR OF GLORY+4.75L7. MAKE IT TURBO+8.75L8. DRAGON COMMANDER+9.75L9. OWNERS' STAR+11.75L10. WITTY SCHOLAR+19.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick JOYFUL HEART (26.9%) finished 5th — the winner AMAZING TEENS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 JOYFUL HEART 26.9% 3.71 5
2 5 TOYCOON 24.3% 4.11 2
3 1 SUPER FAST 14.5% 6.88 3
4 10 OWNERS' STAR 8.1% 12.29 9
5 9 YES WE CAN 8.1% 12.34 4
6 3 DRAGON COMMANDER 7.6% 13.20 8
7 6 AMAZING TEENS 5.5% 18.06 1
8 7 MAKE IT TURBO 2.5% 40.14 7
9 4 STAR OF GLORY 1.4% 70.44 6
10 8 WITTY SCHOLAR 1.0% 103.75 10
JOYFUL HEARTTOYCOONSUPER FASTOWNERS' STARYES WE CANDRAGON COMMANDERAMAZING TEENS — wonMAKE IT TURBOSTAR OF GLORYWITTY SCHOLAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 185.5

PLACE

1 31.5

5 13

6 51

QUINELLA

5,6 314.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 68

1,6 201.5

5,6 107

FORECAST

6,5 1,261

TIERCE

6,5,1 5,197

TRIO

1,5,6 613

FIRST 4

1,5,6,9 778

QUARTET

6,5,1,9 31,205

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 35

A2