Sha Tin · 2021-12-05
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COUNTRY BOY, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with EASON second and SOLAR PARTNER third. The 2.2 favourite SNOWALOT finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT 1.10.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 12 | 8.1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | EASON TT1 J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 3 | 4.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | SOLAR PARTNER H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 11 | 36.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | SNOWALOT Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 2.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | FUN N GLORY TT1 C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 9 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | MY INTELLIGENT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 5 | 55.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | RING BELLS A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 4 | 159.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | HAPPY TIME TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 8 | 27.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | VENTO B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | FOXHUNTER WAY H V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 10 | 42.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | LUCK STAR L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 7 | 119.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | ABOVE ALL H/XB L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 6 | 61.0 | 11-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SNOWALOT | 32.3% | 3.10 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | EASON | 20.2% | 4.95 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | VENTO | 18.2% | 5.50 | 9 |
| 4 | 11 | COUNTRY BOY | 12.0% | 8.34 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | FUN N GLORY | 3.9% | 25.69 | 5 |
| 6 | 12 | HAPPY TIME | 3.1% | 31.94 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | SOLAR PARTNER | 2.8% | 35.62 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | ABOVE ALL | 2.1% | 47.01 | 12 |
| 9 | 10 | FOXHUNTER WAY | 1.7% | 58.09 | 10 |
| 10 | 6 | RING BELLS | 1.7% | 58.51 | 7 |
| 11 | 7 | MY INTELLIGENT | 1.0% | 98.03 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | LUCK STAR | 1.0% | 103.80 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 81.5
PLACE
3 17
8 53
11 21.5
QUINELLA
3,11 167.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 206.5
3,11 57.5
8,11 213
FORECAST
11,3 395
TIERCE
11,3,8 5,516
TRIO
3,8,11 1,372
FIRST 4
1,3,8,11 569
QUARTET
11,3,8,1 22,702
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
4/3 300
4/11 3,294
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 27
A3 —