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Sha Tin · 2021-12-05

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COUNTRY BOY, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with EASON second and SOLAR PARTNER third. The 2.2 favourite SNOWALOT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT 1.10.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size 12 8.1 1/2
2 3 EASON TT1 J Moreira · F C Lor 3 4.5 1/2
3 8 SOLAR PARTNER H Bentley · P F Yiu 11 36.0 1
4 1 SNOWALOT Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 1 2.2 1-3/4
5 4 FUN N GLORY TT1 C Y Ho · W Y So 9 16.0 1-3/4
6 7 MY INTELLIGENT H T Mo · L Ho 5 55.0 2-3/4
7 6 RING BELLS A Hamelin · R Gibson 4 159.0 3-1/2
8 12 HAPPY TIME TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 8 27.0 3-1/2
9 2 VENTO B Shinn · D A Hayes 2 4.6 4-1/2
10 10 FOXHUNTER WAY H V Borges · K W Lui 10 42.0 6
11 5 LUCK STAR L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 7 119.0 9-1/4
12 9 ABOVE ALL H/XB L Ferraris · A T Millard 6 61.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COUNTRY BOY2. EASON+0.5L3. SOLAR PARTNER+1L4. SNOWALOT+1.75L5. FUN N GLORY+1.75L6. MY INTELLIGENT+2.75L7. RING BELLS+3.5L8. HAPPY TIME+3.5L9. VENTO+4.5L10. FOXHUNTER WAY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SNOWALOT (32.3%) finished 4th — the winner COUNTRY BOY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SNOWALOT 32.3% 3.10 4
2 3 EASON 20.2% 4.95 2
3 2 VENTO 18.2% 5.50 9
4 11 COUNTRY BOY 12.0% 8.34 1
5 4 FUN N GLORY 3.9% 25.69 5
6 12 HAPPY TIME 3.1% 31.94 8
7 8 SOLAR PARTNER 2.8% 35.62 3
8 9 ABOVE ALL 2.1% 47.01 12
9 10 FOXHUNTER WAY 1.7% 58.09 10
10 6 RING BELLS 1.7% 58.51 7
11 7 MY INTELLIGENT 1.0% 98.03 6
12 5 LUCK STAR 1.0% 103.80 11
SNOWALOTEASONVENTOCOUNTRY BOY — wonFUN N GLORYHAPPY TIMESOLAR PARTNERABOVE ALLFOXHUNTER WAYRING BELLSMY INTELLIGENTLUCK STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 81.5

PLACE

3 17

8 53

11 21.5

QUINELLA

3,11 167.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 206.5

3,11 57.5

8,11 213

FORECAST

11,3 395

TIERCE

11,3,8 5,516

TRIO

3,8,11 1,372

FIRST 4

1,3,8,11 569

QUARTET

11,3,8,1 22,702

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/3 300

4/11 3,294

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 27

A3