Sha Tin · 2021-12-05
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SPEED FORCE Closed strongly B 1.38.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 1 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly B2 B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 11 | 8.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | EL VALIENTE Closed strongly B-/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 5 | 5.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | LUCKY VICTOR Led early B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 4 | 3.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | SHINEALOT Closed strongly A Badel · P O'Sullivan | A Badel | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 8.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | SHANGHAI GRACE B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 2 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 10 | 6.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 9 | 69.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC J Moreira · L Ho | J Moreira | L Ho | 13 | 9.4 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | REGENCY GEM Closed strongly TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 14 | 35.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | TELECOM ELITE PC2 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 3 | 23.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | RUBY STARS TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 8 | 31.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 13 | 0 | INGENIOUS FELLOW B-/PC1/TT R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 12 | 187.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 14 | 0 | ANONYMA SR1 L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 7 | 48.0 | 15 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-05 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SPEED FORCE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-3/4, with CROWN AVENUE second and EL VALIENTE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite LUCKY VICTOR finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | TURF BRILLIANT | 19.1% | 5.24 | 7 |
| 2 | 0 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR | 14.3% | 6.99 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | LUCKY VICTOR | 11.0% | 9.08 | 4 |
| 4 | 0 | EL VALIENTE | 7.5% | 13.38 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | SHINEALOT | 7.4% | 13.44 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 6.6% | 15.15 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | REGENCY GEM | 6.2% | 16.04 | 10 |
| 8 | 0 | ANONYMA | 5.8% | 17.17 | 14 |
| 9 | 0 | TELECOM ELITE | 5.0% | 19.96 | 11 |
| 10 | 0 | FORTUNE PATROL | 4.7% | 21.23 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | SPEED FORCE | 4.3% | 23.14 | 1 |
| 12 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE | 3.9% | 25.61 | 2 |
| 13 | 0 | RUBY STARS | 3.3% | 30.62 | 12 |
| 14 | 0 | INGENIOUS FELLOW | 0.8% | 121.12 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
14 158.5
PLACE
3 30
7 22
14 48.5
QUINELLA
3,14 636
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 90.5
3,14 188
7,14 145
FORECAST
14,3 1,234
TIERCE
14,3,7 10,946
TRIO
3,7,14 1,560
FIRST 4
3,7,8,14 1,131
QUARTET
14,3,7,8 39,312
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,8,11/3,7,14 403,087
3 PICK 1
A3 25
A1 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
11/3 137.5
11/14 1,490.5