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Sha Tin · 2021-12-05

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-05 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. ALCARI, ridden by C Wong and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with METRO WARRIOR second and CORDYCEPS SIX third. The 1.8 favourite SUPER FORTUNE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.56.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 ALCARI V- 0.56.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Wong · P F Yiu 7 79.0 1/2
2 3 METRO WARRIOR B Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 10.0 1/2
3 2 CORDYCEPS SIX B C Schofield · R Gibson 14 3.4 1/2
4 11 SUPER FORTUNE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 6 1.8 1-3/4
5 10 SEIZING THE MOMENT J Moreira · J Size 2 11.0 3-1/2
6 13 FANTASY B/XB H N Wong · C W Chang 5 254.0 3-3/4
7 4 SOLAR WINDS M Chadwick · C H Yip 12 67.0 4-1/2
8 9 KILLER INSTINCT TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 99.0 5-1/2
9 1 RACING FIGHTER B/TT K H Chan · C H Yip 8 125.0 6-1/4
10 6 RUN RUN COOL B H Bentley · F C Lor 11 11.0 6-1/4
11 8 PROSECCO A Badel · W Y So 3 81.0 9
12 5 NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE R Maia · K W Lui 9 132.0 11-1/4
13 7 ASTRO KING CP L Hewitson · D J Whyte 13 157.0 11-3/4
14 14 STRIKING MR C B/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 10 75.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALCARI2. METRO WARRIOR+0.5L3. CORDYCEPS SIX+0.5L4. SUPER FORTUNE+1.75L5. SEIZING THE MOMENT+3.5L6. FANTASY+3.75L7. SOLAR WINDS+4.5L8. KILLER INSTINCT+5.5L9. RACING FIGHTER+6.25L10. RUN RUN COOL+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUPER FORTUNE (31.3%) finished 4th — the winner ALCARI was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 SUPER FORTUNE 31.3% 3.20 4
2 10 SEIZING THE MOMENT 22.3% 4.48 5
3 3 METRO WARRIOR 13.9% 7.21 2
4 2 CORDYCEPS SIX 12.8% 7.82 3
5 8 PROSECCO 3.3% 30.64 11
6 9 KILLER INSTINCT 3.2% 31.62 8
7 1 RACING FIGHTER 2.4% 41.41 9
8 12 ALCARI 2.4% 41.46 1
9 6 RUN RUN COOL 2.2% 45.67 10
10 4 SOLAR WINDS 2.1% 47.16 7
11 14 STRIKING MR C 1.8% 56.57 14
12 5 NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE 1.2% 82.74 12
13 13 FANTASY 0.8% 129.91 6
14 7 ASTRO KING 0.5% 207.56 13
SUPER FORTUNESEIZING THE MOMENTMETRO WARRIORCORDYCEPS SIXPROSECCOKILLER INSTINCTRACING FIGHTERALCARI — wonRUN RUN COOLSOLAR WINDSSTRIKING MR CNOTHING IMPOSSIBLEFANTASYASTRO KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 797

PLACE

2 13.5

3 21

12 92

QUINELLA

3,12 2,309.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 49

2,12 241

3,12 443.5

FORECAST

12,3 5,999

TIERCE

12,3,2 24,420

TRIO

2,3,12 1,969

FIRST 4

2,3,11,12 511

QUARTET

12,3,2,11 35,325

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 112.5

A1

A2

7TH DOUBLE

4/3 92

4/12 4,467.5