Sha Tin · 2021-12-05

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-05 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SIGHT SUCCESS, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by 2-3/4, with CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT second and KA YING MASTER third. The 3.3 favourite CZARSON finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.07.40

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	SIGHT SUCCESS E 1.07.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	2	125 lb	7.9	2-3/4
2	2	CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	3	129 lb	16.0	2-3/4
3	6	KA YING MASTER TT K C Leung · T P Yung	K C Leung	T P Yung	5	116 lb	12.0	3-1/4
4	7	CZARSON CP/TT J Moreira · P F Yiu	J Moreira	P F Yiu	7	115 lb	3.3	3-1/2
5	8	MAN STAR V M Chadwick · K H Ting	M Chadwick	K H Ting	6	113 lb	11.0	3-1/2
6	5	RED DESERT A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	9	121 lb	10.0	3-3/4
7	1	WILL POWER XB B Shinn · D J Whyte	B Shinn	D J Whyte	8	133 lb	15.0	3-3/4
8	9	CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	4	113 lb	3.6	4-3/4
9	3	SILVER FIG B/TT M F Poon · A T Millard	M F Poon	A T Millard	1	125 lb	8.1	5-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick CHANCHENG PRINCE (24.9%) finished 8th — the winner SIGHT SUCCESS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	CHANCHENG PRINCE	24.9%	4.01	8	3.6
2	4	SIGHT SUCCESS	21.0%	4.77	1	7.9
3	7	CZARSON	18.5%	5.41	4	3.3
4	3	SILVER FIG	11.0%	9.13	9	8.1
5	6	KA YING MASTER	7.2%	13.82	3	12.0
6	2	CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT	6.2%	16.19	2	16.0
7	8	MAN STAR	5.4%	18.63	5	11.0
8	1	WILL POWER	3.2%	31.56	7	15.0
9	5	RED DESERT	2.7%	36.67	6	10.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 79

PLACE

2 36

4 21.5

6 26.5

QUINELLA

2,4 478.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 147

2,6 258

4,6 101

FORECAST

4,2 1,160

TIERCE

4,2,6 7,030

TRIO

2,4,6 1,157

FIRST 4

2,4,6,7 1,038

QUARTET

4,2,6,7 27,425

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,12/2,4,6 39,380

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 27

6TH DOUBLE

12/2 183.5

12/4 389

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