Sha Tin · 2021-12-12 · 12:26

Race 1

Class 2 GOOD 1600m Course A 8 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-12 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. FAST MOST FURIOUS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 1/2, with MASTER DELIGHT second and SENOR TOBA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite MASTER DELIGHT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.34.32

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	FAST MOST FURIOUS Closed strongly 1.34.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	7	133 lb	8.7	1/2
2	3	MASTER DELIGHT Led early J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	8	115 lb	1.8	1/2
3	6	SENOR TOBA Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes	M Chadwick	C Fownes	1	113 lb	14.0	1
4	7	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B M F Poon · F C Lor	M F Poon	F C Lor	3	112 lb	6.1	1-1/4
5	2	CALIFORNIA TEN B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz	A Badel	A S Cruz	2	114 lb	16.0	1-1/2
6	5	CONQUEROR Closed strongly B M L Yeung · D A Hayes	M L Yeung	D A Hayes	6	113 lb	45.0	1-1/2
7	4	BEAUTY FIT E V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	5	113 lb	8.1	2-1/2
8	8	COBHFIELD SR/XB K Teetan · A T Millard	K Teetan	A T Millard	4	113 lb	10.0	3-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick MASTER DELIGHT (37.2%) finished 2nd — the winner FAST MOST FURIOUS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	MASTER DELIGHT	37.2%	2.68	2	1.8
2	1	FAST MOST FURIOUS	14.7%	6.82	1	8.7
3	8	COBHFIELD	13.2%	7.57	8	10.0
4	2	CALIFORNIA TEN	10.9%	9.18	5	16.0
5	7	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S	10.5%	9.49	4	6.1
6	6	SENOR TOBA	6.9%	14.54	3	14.0
7	4	BEAUTY FIT	4.8%	20.80	7	8.1
8	5	CONQUEROR	1.8%	56.92	6	45.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 87

PLACE

1 17

3 11

6 41.5

QUINELLA

1,3 61

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 26.5

1,6 175.5

3,6 54.5

FORECAST

1,3 211

TIERCE

1,3,6 2,068

TRIO

1,3,6 251

FIRST 4

1,3,6,7 213

QUARTET

1,3,6,7 6,539

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 26.5

A1 —

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99