Sha Tin · 2021-12-12 · 17:58
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-12 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NAVAS TWO, ridden by R Maia and trained by R Gibson, won by HD, with PACKING VICTORY second and SUPER DYNAMITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite TORONADO PHANTOM finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | NAVAS TWO Closed strongly CP1 1.21.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 4 | 57.0 | HD |
| 2 | 1 | PACKING VICTORY TT C Soumillon · C S Shum | C Soumillon | C S Shum | 12 | 3.8 | HD |
| 3 | 6 | SUPER DYNAMITE Closed strongly T Marquand · P F Yiu | T Marquand | P F Yiu | 13 | 97.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | PARTERRE Closed strongly K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 14 | 9.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | PRIVATE ROCKET CP/XB K H Chan · D J Whyte | K H Chan | D J Whyte | 5 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 13 | A LA KING Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 6 | 91.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 14 | TORONADO PHANTOM TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 2.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | SUPER WINNER Led early TT H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 8 | 69.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | STORM LEGEND Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 25.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | INDIGENOUS REALM Closed strongly TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 11 | 108.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | LET'S DO IT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 8 | LEWIS B/XB2/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 10 | 233.0 | 5 |
| 13 | 9 | APACHE PASS BO/XB A Badel · P O'Sullivan | A Badel | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 171.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | SAUVESTRE TT1 R Moore · F C Lor | R Moore | F C Lor | 9 | 5.4 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PACKING VICTORY | 34.3% | 2.92 | 2 |
| 2 | 14 | TORONADO PHANTOM | 20.6% | 4.87 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | SAUVESTRE | 11.9% | 8.37 | 14 |
| 4 | 7 | PARTERRE | 8.9% | 11.27 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | LET'S DO IT | 6.2% | 16.24 | 11 |
| 6 | 2 | PRIVATE ROCKET | 4.8% | 20.99 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | STORM LEGEND | 3.1% | 32.14 | 9 |
| 8 | 13 | A LA KING | 2.1% | 48.03 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | SUPER DYNAMITE | 1.9% | 51.76 | 3 |
| 10 | 3 | SUPER WINNER | 1.4% | 69.18 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | INDIGENOUS REALM | 1.4% | 70.88 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | APACHE PASS | 1.3% | 75.78 | 13 |
| 13 | 8 | LEWIS | 1.1% | 91.88 | 12 |
| 14 | 12 | NAVAS TWO | 1.0% | 96.82 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 571
PLACE
1 17.5
6 141.5
12 100
QUINELLA
1,12 1,019
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 414
1,12 267
6,12 1,868.5
FORECAST
12,1 2,865
TIERCE
12,1,6 107,239
TRIO
1,6,12 16,386
FIRST 4
1,6,7,12 28,823
QUARTET
12,1,6,7 1,403,697
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 45.5
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,13,14/1,6,12 1,386,538
9TH DOUBLE
13/1 17.5
13/12 983
SIX UP
6/11/1/12/13/12 235,223
6,12/6,11/1,5/4,12/13,14/1,12 1,153
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
12/13/1 44
12/13/12 3,237