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Sha Tin · 2021-12-12 · 17:18

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY WITH YOU, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/4, with GALLANT EXPRESS second and CIRCUIT STELLAR third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 LUCKY WITH YOU 1.09.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 1 2.0 1-1/4
2 14 GALLANT EXPRESS E V Borges · J Size 2 4.9 1-1/4
3 2 CIRCUIT STELLAR TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 6 34.0 1-1/2
4 4 EXCELLENT DADDY K C Leung · T P Yung 9 9.6 1-3/4
5 9 STAR BRITE C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 36.0 2
6 7 PRIME MINISTER TT T Marquand · P F Yiu 11 13.0 2-1/2
7 11 ELIGERE B H Bentley · Y S Tsui 12 108.0 2-3/4
8 6 WAR WEAPON TT J Moreira · C Fownes 4 6.9 3-1/2
9 10 BEAUTY MISSION SR1 A Badel · F C Lor 14 59.0 4-3/4
10 1 ALL IN MIND CP/H/XB/TT C Soumillon · W Y So 8 12.0 5
11 3 REGENCY BO BO B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 10 109.0 5-3/4
12 5 SMOKEY BEAR H/XB1 M F Poon · D J Hall 3 104.0 6
13 8 CIRCUIT MIGHTY L Ferraris · K L Man 13 248.0 7-3/4
14 12 SUPREME SUPREME M L Yeung · C H Yip 5 252.0 28

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY WITH YOU2. GALLANT EXPRESS+1.25L3. CIRCUIT STELLAR+1.5L4. EXCELLENT DADDY+1.75L5. STAR BRITE+2L6. PRIME MINISTER+2.5L7. ELIGERE+2.75L8. WAR WEAPON+3.5L9. BEAUTY MISSION+4.75L10. ALL IN MIND+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick WAR WEAPON (24.4%) finished 8th — the winner LUCKY WITH YOU was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 WAR WEAPON 24.4% 4.10 8
2 13 LUCKY WITH YOU 21.8% 4.58 1
3 14 GALLANT EXPRESS 12.2% 8.20 2
4 4 EXCELLENT DADDY 10.0% 10.02 4
5 7 PRIME MINISTER 6.3% 15.91 6
6 1 ALL IN MIND 6.1% 16.48 10
7 10 BEAUTY MISSION 4.3% 23.37 9
8 11 ELIGERE 3.7% 26.94 7
9 2 CIRCUIT STELLAR 3.4% 29.32 3
10 9 STAR BRITE 3.3% 30.29 5
11 5 SMOKEY BEAR 1.7% 58.85 12
12 3 REGENCY BO BO 1.6% 63.52 11
13 8 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 0.8% 120.81 13
14 12 SUPREME SUPREME 0.4% 224.74 14
WAR WEAPONLUCKY WITH YOU — wonGALLANT EXPRESSEXCELLENT DADDYPRIME MINISTERALL IN MINDBEAUTY MISSIONELIGERECIRCUIT STELLARSTAR BRITESMOKEY BEARREGENCY BO BOCIRCUIT MIGHTYSUPREME SUPREME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 20

PLACE

2 64.5

13 12

14 15.5

QUINELLA

13,14 50.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,13 113

2,14 155

13,14 24

FORECAST

13,14 65

TIERCE

13,14,2 889

TRIO

2,13,14 411

FIRST 4

2,4,13,14 557

QUARTET

13,14,2,4 6,164

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 15.5

A2

A3

8TH DOUBLE

12/13 68

12/14 36.5