Sha Tin · 2021-12-12 · 15:23
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-12 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with FANTASTIC WAY second and GOOD LUCK FRIEND third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT 1.08.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 5 | 1.8 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | FANTASTIC WAY J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 6 | 103.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | VALIANT DREAM M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 2 | 27.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | SCORES OF FUN TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 4 | 22.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | MASTER MONTARO CP-/B2 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 9 | 18.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | TRILLION WIN CP A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 7 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | WISHFUL THINKER CP K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 8 | 62.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 10 | 9.5 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | ROMAN TURBO SR/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 3 | 45.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 7 | SPARKLING DRAGON TT L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 11 | 153.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 35.2% | 2.84 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | FANTASTIC WAY | 26.6% | 3.75 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | TRILLION WIN | 12.8% | 7.81 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | SCORES OF FUN | 6.1% | 16.42 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | ROMAN TURBO | 4.5% | 22.43 | 10 |
| 6 | 4 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 4.0% | 24.99 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | VALIANT DREAM | 3.6% | 27.67 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | MASTER MONTARO | 3.2% | 31.22 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND | 1.4% | 71.35 | 3 |
| 10 | 2 | WISHFUL THINKER | 1.4% | 71.59 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | SPARKLING DRAGON | 1.2% | 81.16 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 18
PLACE
6 12.5
10 143.5
11 11
QUINELLA
6,11 30.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 315
6,11 16.5
10,11 234.5
FORECAST
11,6 34
TIERCE
11,6,10 923
TRIO
6,10,11 509
FIRST 4
6,9,10,11 1,524
QUARTET
11,6,10,9 11,318
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 18
5TH DOUBLE
6/6 120
6/11 531
TRIPLE TRIO
1,2,8/6,11,12/6,10,11 725,488
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,2,8/6,11,12/Any Combination 1,905