Sha Tin · 2021-12-12 · 16:38
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | LOVES ONLY YOU Closed strongly 2.00.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y Kawada · Y Yahagi | Y Kawada | Y Yahagi | 4 | 2.6 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | HISHI IGUAZU Closed strongly XB J Moreira · N Hori | J Moreira | N Hori | 12 | 5.8 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR Closed strongly B B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 10 | 24.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | DUBAI HONOUR Closed strongly XB/TT T Marquand · W J Haggas | T Marquand | W J Haggas | 7 | 5.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 11 | 29.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | LEI PAPALE Closed strongly H C Soumillon · T Takano | C Soumillon | T Takano | 3 | 6.2 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 5 | 38.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | GLORIOUS DRAGON XB/TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 8 | 23.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | BOLSHOI BALLET R Moore · A P O'Brien | R Moore | A P O'Brien | 9 | 29.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | KA YING STAR Led early V/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 6 | 22.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 0 | PANFIELD TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 1 | 18.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | MAC SWINEY XB K Manning · J S Bolger | K Manning | J S Bolger | 2 | 44.0 | 16-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-12 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. LOVES ONLY YOU, ridden by Y Kawada and trained by Y Yahagi, won by SH, with HISHI IGUAZU second and RUSSIAN EMPEROR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HISHI IGUAZU | 19.2% | 5.20 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND | 16.3% | 6.14 | 5 |
| 3 | 0 | LOVES ONLY YOU | 14.5% | 6.89 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | PANFIELD | 8.7% | 11.48 | 11 |
| 5 | 0 | KA YING STAR | 8.2% | 12.25 | 10 |
| 6 | 0 | LEI PAPALE | 7.3% | 13.68 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | BOLSHOI BALLET | 5.7% | 17.63 | 9 |
| 8 | 0 | MAC SWINEY | 4.8% | 20.91 | 12 |
| 9 | 0 | DUBAI HONOUR | 4.5% | 22.46 | 4 |
| 10 | 0 | GLORIOUS DRAGON | 4.1% | 24.55 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | BERLIN TANGO | 3.9% | 25.83 | 7 |
| 12 | 0 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR | 2.9% | 34.07 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 26
PLACE
4 21
5 57.5
12 13
QUINELLA
4,12 93.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 361.5
4,12 41.5
5,12 159.5
FORECAST
12,4 136
TIERCE
12,4,5 2,892
TRIO
4,5,12 995
FIRST 4
4,5,8,12 1,047
QUARTET
12,4,5,8 15,448
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 18
7TH DOUBLE
1/4 15
1/12 29
WINNING REGION
C2 14
C1 —
C4 —
C3 —