Sha Tin · 2021-12-12 · 14:03

Race 4

Group 1 GOOD 2400m Course A 8 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-12 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. GLORY VASE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by T Ozeki, won by 1, with PYLEDRIVER second and EBAIYRA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.27.07

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	GLORY VASE Closed strongly XB 2.27.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · T Ozeki	J Moreira	T Ozeki	7	126 lb	1.8	1
2	1	PYLEDRIVER Closed strongly XB M Dwyer · W Muir	M Dwyer	W Muir	3	126 lb	4.5	1
3	8	EBAIYRA Closed strongly SR C Soumillon · de Royer Dupre	C Soumillon	de Royer Dupre	5	122 lb	13.0	3-1/2
4	3	COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C Fownes	K Teetan	C Fownes	6	126 lb	22.0	6-1/2
5	4	STAY FOOLISH C Y Ho · Y Yahagi	C Y Ho	Y Yahagi	4	126 lb	13.0	8-1/2
6	5	MOGUL XB R Moore · A P O'Brien	R Moore	A P O'Brien	2	126 lb	6.1	11
7	7	BUTTERFIELD TT D Lane · C S Shum	D Lane	C S Shum	8	126 lb	21.0	14-3/4
8	6	RELIABLE TEAM Led early B K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	1	126 lb	21.0	31-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick GLORY VASE (36.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	GLORY VASE	36.5%	2.74	1	1.8
2	5	MOGUL	21.5%	4.64	6	6.1
3	8	EBAIYRA	11.7%	8.56	3	13.0
4	4	STAY FOOLISH	8.0%	12.44	5	13.0
5	1	PYLEDRIVER	7.9%	12.58	2	4.5
6	6	RELIABLE TEAM	6.0%	16.81	8	21.0
7	3	COLUMBUS COUNTY	5.8%	17.36	4	22.0
8	7	BUTTERFIELD	2.6%	38.33	7	21.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 18.5

PLACE

1 13.5

2 11

8 24

QUINELLA

1,2 31

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 16

1,8 55

2,8 40

FORECAST

2,1 40

TIERCE

2,1,8 191

TRIO

1,2,8 78

FIRST 4

1,2,3,8 249

QUARTET

2,1,8,3 1,628

All pools (4 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,13/1,2,8 3,343

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 13

3RD DOUBLE

2/1 58

2/2 234

WINNING REGION

C1 16

C3 —

C2 —

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