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Sha Tin · 2021-12-12 · 13:28

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.47.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TEMPEST EXPRESS Closed strongly E/TT 1.47.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 11 6.4 1
2 0 CHEVALIER PRINCE CP M L Yeung · F C Lor 6 11.0 1
3 0 CHAMPION DRAGON Closed strongly H/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz 3 4.0 1
4 0 ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 9 53.0 1-1/2
5 0 SUPERBELLA Closed strongly V-/B2/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 10 7.0 1-1/2
6 0 CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR R Moore · C S Shum 5 9.2 1-3/4
7 0 PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly V- K Teetan · C Fownes 2 17.0 1-3/4
8 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly B-/V2 M Chadwick · C H Yip 13 46.0 2
9 0 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · W Y So 4 11.0 2-1/4
10 0 FLYING TURBO B1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 121.0 4-1/4
11 0 WORLD FAMOUS XB V Borges · P F Yiu 14 8.4 4-1/2
12 0 NORDIC SKY Closed strongly SR/XB K C Leung · A T Millard 1 89.0 4-3/4
13 0 FUNCTION PATCH B/H/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 12 34.0 7-3/4
14 0 HELENE ALLIBOR Led early B B Shinn · D A Hayes 8 7.9 9

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-12 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. TEMPEST EXPRESS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1, with CHEVALIER PRINCE second and CHAMPION DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite CHAMPION DRAGON finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TEMPEST EXPRESS—2. CHEVALIER PRINCE+1L3. CHAMPION DRAGON+1L4. ROYAL PRIDE+1.5L5. SUPERBELLA+1.5L6. CHARITY GO+1.75L7. PERFECT TO GREAT+1.75L8. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+2L9. ENTRUSTED+2.25L10. FLYING TURBO+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick CHAMPION DRAGON (16.4%) finished 3rd — the winner TEMPEST EXPRESS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CHAMPION DRAGON 16.4% 6.08 3
2 0 TEMPEST EXPRESS 13.8% 7.27 1
3 0 SUPERBELLA 13.6% 7.36 5
4 0 ENTRUSTED 12.4% 8.06 9
5 0 HELENE ALLIBOR 9.5% 10.52 14
6 0 CHEVALIER PRINCE 5.6% 17.72 2
7 0 CHARITY GO 5.6% 17.88 6
8 0 WORLD FAMOUS 5.5% 18.11 11
9 0 PERFECT TO GREAT 4.3% 23.03 7
10 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 3.5% 28.60 8
11 0 FUNCTION PATCH 2.9% 34.45 13
12 0 ROYAL PRIDE 2.8% 35.12 4
13 0 NORDIC SKY 2.6% 38.78 12
14 0 FLYING TURBO 1.4% 72.02 10
CHAMPION DRAGONTEMPEST EXPRESS — wonSUPERBELLAENTRUSTEDHELENE ALLIBORCHEVALIER PRINCECHARITY GOWORLD FAMOUSPERFECT TO GREATMURRAY'S PARTNERSFUNCTION PATCHROYAL PRIDENORDIC SKYFLYING TURBO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 64.5

PLACE

2 25

5 18.5

13 33.5

QUINELLA

2,13 420

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 62

2,13 123

5,13 94

FORECAST

2,13 852

TIERCE

2,13,5 4,111

TRIO

2,5,13 614

FIRST 4

2,5,10,13 7,433

QUARTET

2,13,5,10 158,598

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/2 219.5

6/13 44.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 20

A2 —