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Sha Tin · 2021-12-12 · 13:28

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-12 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. TEMPEST EXPRESS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1, with CHEVALIER PRINCE second and CHAMPION DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite CHAMPION DRAGON finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.47.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 TEMPEST EXPRESS Closed strongly E/TT 1.47.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 11 6.4 1
2 13 CHEVALIER PRINCE CP M L Yeung · F C Lor 6 11.0 1
3 5 CHAMPION DRAGON Closed strongly H/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz 3 4.0 1
4 10 ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 9 53.0 1-1/2
5 11 SUPERBELLA Closed strongly V-/B2/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 10 7.0 1-1/2
6 1 CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR R Moore · C S Shum 5 9.2 1-3/4
7 9 PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly V- K Teetan · C Fownes 2 17.0 1-3/4
8 14 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly B-/V2 M Chadwick · C H Yip 13 46.0 2
9 3 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · W Y So 4 11.0 2-1/4
10 6 FLYING TURBO B1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 121.0 4-1/4
11 12 WORLD FAMOUS XB V Borges · P F Yiu 14 8.4 4-1/2
12 7 NORDIC SKY Closed strongly SR/XB K C Leung · A T Millard 1 89.0 4-3/4
13 4 FUNCTION PATCH B/H/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 12 34.0 7-3/4
14 8 HELENE ALLIBOR Led early B B Shinn · D A Hayes 8 7.9 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TEMPEST EXPRESS2. CHEVALIER PRINCE+1L3. CHAMPION DRAGON+1L4. ROYAL PRIDE+1.5L5. SUPERBELLA+1.5L6. CHARITY GO+1.75L7. PERFECT TO GREAT+1.75L8. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+2L9. ENTRUSTED+2.25L10. FLYING TURBO+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick CHAMPION DRAGON (16.4%) finished 3rd — the winner TEMPEST EXPRESS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 CHAMPION DRAGON 16.4% 6.08 3
2 2 TEMPEST EXPRESS 13.8% 7.27 1
3 11 SUPERBELLA 13.6% 7.36 5
4 3 ENTRUSTED 12.4% 8.06 9
5 8 HELENE ALLIBOR 9.5% 10.52 14
6 13 CHEVALIER PRINCE 5.6% 17.72 2
7 1 CHARITY GO 5.6% 17.88 6
8 12 WORLD FAMOUS 5.5% 18.11 11
9 9 PERFECT TO GREAT 4.3% 23.03 7
10 14 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 3.5% 28.60 8
11 4 FUNCTION PATCH 2.9% 34.45 13
12 10 ROYAL PRIDE 2.8% 35.12 4
13 7 NORDIC SKY 2.6% 38.78 12
14 6 FLYING TURBO 1.4% 72.02 10
CHAMPION DRAGONTEMPEST EXPRESS — wonSUPERBELLAENTRUSTEDHELENE ALLIBORCHEVALIER PRINCECHARITY GOWORLD FAMOUSPERFECT TO GREATMURRAY'S PARTNERSFUNCTION PATCHROYAL PRIDENORDIC SKYFLYING TURBO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 64.5

PLACE

2 25

5 18.5

13 33.5

QUINELLA

2,13 420

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 62

2,13 123

5,13 94

FORECAST

2,13 852

TIERCE

2,13,5 4,111

TRIO

2,5,13 614

FIRST 4

2,5,10,13 7,433

QUARTET

2,13,5,10 158,598

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/2 219.5

6/13 44.5

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 20