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Happy Valley · 2022-01-05 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 4 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-05 was Class 4 over 1200m. REWARDING TOGETHER, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with CHARMING STEED second and SIGHT HERO third. The 2.8 favourite SIGHT HERO finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT 1.10.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · F C Lor 5 3.5 2
2 6 CHARMING STEED TT B Shinn · C Fownes 3 9.2 2
3 5 SIGHT HERO B K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 2.8 3-1/2
4 4 REGENCY STAR A Badel · C S Shum 9 5.7 3-1/2
5 8 MEGA BONUS XB C Y Ho · P F Yiu 10 8.1 3-1/2
6 11 MAN UP CP1/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 11 87.0 4-1/4
7 7 QUORUM B1/TT1 R Maia · R Gibson 1 24.0 4-1/2
8 3 HARRIER JET B V Borges · P O'Sullivan 8 28.0 4-3/4
9 1 BABY B2 A Hamelin · K H Ting 12 18.0 6-3/4
10 10 JUBILATION V H T Mo · L Ho 2 142.0 7-1/2
11 9 EUROMISSILE CP-/XB/B1/H1 M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 55.0 9-3/4
12 12 KABI SMART H-/TT C Wong · W Y So 4 158.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REWARDING TOGETHER2. CHARMING STEED+2L3. SIGHT HERO+3.5L4. REGENCY STAR+3.5L5. MEGA BONUS+3.5L6. MAN UP+4.25L7. QUORUM+4.5L8. HARRIER JET+4.75L9. BABY+6.75L10. JUBILATION+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SIGHT HERO (19.3%) finished 3rd — the winner REWARDING TOGETHER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SIGHT HERO 19.3% 5.18 3
2 8 MEGA BONUS 18.5% 5.40 5
3 2 REWARDING TOGETHER 17.9% 5.59 1
4 6 CHARMING STEED 15.3% 6.52 2
5 4 REGENCY STAR 10.6% 9.41 4
6 9 EUROMISSILE 4.6% 21.58 11
7 7 QUORUM 4.2% 23.53 7
8 1 BABY 3.1% 32.72 9
9 3 HARRIER JET 2.7% 37.40 8
10 12 KABI SMART 1.7% 60.22 12
11 11 MAN UP 1.5% 68.77 6
12 10 JUBILATION 0.6% 174.17 10
SIGHT HEROMEGA BONUSREWARDING TOGETHER — wonCHARMING STEEDREGENCY STAREUROMISSILEQUORUMBABYHARRIER JETKABI SMARTMAN UPJUBILATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 35

PLACE

2 13

5 13

6 23.5

QUINELLA

2,6 144

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 22.5

2,6 50

5,6 39.5

FORECAST

2,6 263

TIERCE

2,6,5 647

TRIO

2,5,6 91

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 102

QUARTET

2,6,5,4 2,495

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/2 213

1/6 71

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 21.5

A3