Happy Valley · 2022-01-05 · 21:16
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-05 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ASTROLOGER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D J Whyte, won by HD, with MERIDIAN GENIUS second and FARSHAD third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ASTROLOGER 1.10.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 4 | 2.7 | HD |
| 2 | 8 | MERIDIAN GENIUS A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 12 | 11.0 | HD |
| 3 | 12 | FARSHAD C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 55.0 | N |
| 4 | 1 | DECISIVE TWELVE TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 10 | 33.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | STOCK LEGEND H/TT K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 1 | 2.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | BIRDSVILLE M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 9 | 98.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 7 | 8.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 10 | SPONTANEOUS B/TT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 21.0 | 2 |
| 9 | 9 | MOMENTUM GALAXY B K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 2 | 9.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 11 | 76.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | SEVEN HEAVENS B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 8 | 23.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | ROYAL CAMPBELL CP-/H1/TT1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 5 | 51.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ASTROLOGER | 26.8% | 3.74 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | STOCK LEGEND | 21.6% | 4.62 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 12.7% | 7.89 | 7 |
| 4 | 8 | MERIDIAN GENIUS | 9.5% | 10.58 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 6.6% | 15.18 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 5.2% | 19.30 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 4.3% | 23.43 | 11 |
| 8 | 5 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO | 3.7% | 27.16 | 10 |
| 9 | 10 | SPONTANEOUS | 3.4% | 29.07 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | FARSHAD | 2.6% | 38.55 | 3 |
| 11 | 11 | BIRDSVILLE | 2.0% | 49.00 | 6 |
| 12 | 7 | ROYAL CAMPBELL | 1.7% | 60.24 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 27
PLACE
3 14
8 32
12 78.5
QUINELLA
3,8 201
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 74
3,12 180.5
8,12 606
FORECAST
3,8 313
TIERCE
3,8,12 7,408
TRIO
3,8,12 2,176
FIRST 4
1,3,8,12 10,063
QUARTET
3,8,12,1 95,067
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 14
A2 —
A3 —
5TH DOUBLE
5/3 138.5
5/8 138.5