Happy Valley · 2022-01-05 · 20:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-05 was Group 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. ZEBROWSKI, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with SUNNY STAR second and SAVVY NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ZEBROWSKI Closed strongly TT 1.48.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 1.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | SUNNY STAR Closed strongly A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 5 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | SAVVY NINE B/XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 9 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | FAST MOST FURIOUS Closed strongly M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 1 | 7.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | SUPER FOOTBALL Closed strongly CP1 V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 4 | 41.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | BUTTERFIELD TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 2 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 1 | KA YING STAR Closed strongly V/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 6 | 9.9 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | RELIABLE TEAM B K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 7 | 14.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | DECRYPT Led early B-/TT C Wong · D A Hayes | C Wong | D A Hayes | 8 | 87.0 | 19-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ZEBROWSKI | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | FAST MOST FURIOUS | 11.8% | 8.44 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | KA YING STAR | 9.7% | 10.29 | 7 |
| 4 | 8 | SUNNY STAR | 8.6% | 11.56 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | RELIABLE TEAM | 4.8% | 20.69 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | SAVVY NINE | 4.1% | 24.35 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | BUTTERFIELD | 3.6% | 27.45 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | DECRYPT | 2.2% | 45.54 | 9 |
| 9 | 7 | SUPER FOOTBALL | 2.1% | 47.97 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 16.5
PLACE
5 22.5
6 10.1
8 30.5
QUINELLA
6,8 81.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 31.5
5,8 126
6,8 37
FORECAST
6,8 114
TIERCE
6,8,5 594
TRIO
5,6,8 209
FIRST 4
3,5,6,8 216
QUARTET
6,8,5,3 2,921
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 14
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/6 80.5
2/8 102.5