Happy Valley · 2022-01-05 · 19:48
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TORONADO PHANTOM, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by N, with SHADOW RUNNER second and MY ECSTATIC third. The 3.4 favourite MY ECSTATIC finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | TORONADO PHANTOM TT 1.10.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 8 | 3.8 | N |
| 2 | 12 | SHADOW RUNNER TT M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 5.7 | N |
| 3 | 1 | MY ECSTATIC TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 3 | 3.4 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | XPONENTIAL B/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 12 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | BINGO BINGO B/TT V Borges · C S Shum | V Borges | C S Shum | 5 | 43.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | HERCULES B/XB/TT K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 9 | 7.9 | 1 |
| 7 | 9 | WHISKEY NEAT TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 6 | 7.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 10 | HAPPY GATHERING B A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 11 | 26.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 4 | HAPPY TANGO B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui | A Hamelin | Y S Tsui | 1 | 25.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | CALL ME LU XB/TT R Maia · W Y So | R Maia | W Y So | 7 | 123.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | MASTER AQUA CP-/B1 K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 4 | 55.0 | 19-1/4 |
| — | 11 | THETA HEDGE M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | TORONADO PHANTOM | 25.1% | 3.98 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | MY ECSTATIC | 13.4% | 7.46 | 3 |
| 3 | 5 | HERCULES | 13.2% | 7.59 | 6 |
| 4 | 10 | HAPPY GATHERING | 10.4% | 9.65 | 8 |
| 5 | 9 | WHISKEY NEAT | 8.6% | 11.68 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | XPONENTIAL | 7.7% | 13.01 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | SHADOW RUNNER | 7.1% | 14.02 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | HAPPY TANGO | 5.2% | 19.20 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | BINGO BINGO | 4.1% | 24.20 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | MASTER AQUA | 3.4% | 29.52 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | CALL ME LU | 1.8% | 55.22 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 38.5
PLACE
1 15.5
2 17
12 19
QUINELLA
2,12 139.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 28.5
1,12 43
2,12 53.5
FORECAST
2,12 271
TIERCE
2,12,1 713
TRIO
1,2,12 144
FIRST 4
1,2,3,12 181
QUARTET
2,12,1,3 4,043
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/2 121.5
2/12 43.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 26
A3 —