Sha Tin · 2022-01-09 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C 10 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-09 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. METRO WARRIOR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D A Hayes, won by SH, with ALCARI second and RUN RUN COOL third. The 3.7 favourite ALCARI finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.34

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	METRO WARRIOR B 0.56.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D A Hayes	C Y Ho	D A Hayes	9	131 lb	4.0	SH
2	5	ALCARI J Moreira · P F Yiu	J Moreira	P F Yiu	3	122 lb	3.7	—
3	8	RUN RUN COOL B/H H Bentley · F C Lor	H Bentley	F C Lor	10	117 lb	5.1	1-3/4
4	1	GOLD CHEST CP/TT M F Poon · R Gibson	M F Poon	R Gibson	4	131 lb	9.4	4
5	7	LIKE THAT V K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	1	119 lb	6.8	4
6	3	LOCKHEED B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum	C L Chau	C S Shum	8	127 lb	9.0	4-1/4
7	9	WILD WEST WING V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	2	116 lb	13.0	4-3/4
8	4	FLYING GENIUS B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	7	123 lb	30.0	7-3/4
9	6	BORN THE SAME DAY H A Hamelin · K W Lui	A Hamelin	K W Lui	6	119 lb	76.0	10
10	10	STRIKING MR C B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung	H T Mo	T P Yung	5	113 lb	57.0	13

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick ALCARI (32.3%) finished 2nd — the winner METRO WARRIOR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	ALCARI	32.3%	3.10	2	3.7
2	9	WILD WEST WING	18.5%	5.40	7	13.0
3	7	LIKE THAT	13.5%	7.42	5	6.8
4	8	RUN RUN COOL	9.7%	10.26	3	5.1
5	2	METRO WARRIOR	7.7%	13.04	1	4.0
6	3	LOCKHEED	6.2%	16.13	6	9.0
7	1	GOLD CHEST	4.5%	22.42	4	9.4
8	10	STRIKING MR C	4.3%	23.26	10	57.0
9	4	FLYING GENIUS	2.7%	36.63	8	30.0
10	6	BORN THE SAME DAY	0.6%	162.73	9	76.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 40

PLACE

2 15.5

5 15

8 18

QUINELLA

2,5 78.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 31

2,8 41.5

5,8 42

FORECAST

2,5 142

TIERCE

2,5,8 575

TRIO

2,5,8 114

FIRST 4

1,2,5,8 128

QUARTET

2,5,8,1 2,685

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/2 206.5

3/5 27.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 20

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