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Sha Tin · 2022-01-09 · 16:43

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-09 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. RUNNING GLORY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 3-1/4, with LIFELINE VISION second and SUPER MISSION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite GOOD RUNNER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly 1.21.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 4 3.5 3-1/4
2 1 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly B- C Y Ho · D A Hayes 5 34.0 3-1/4
3 5 SUPER MISSION Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 6 7.3 3-1/4
4 3 GOOD RUNNER Closed strongly XB C L Chau · D J Hall 2 2.4 3-1/2
5 8 VUKAN Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 1 6.1 4-1/4
6 9 AMIGOS GIGGLE Led early K H Chan · C W Chang 13 51.0 5
7 12 LADY FIRST CP/H/XB/TT R Maia · A S Cruz 10 60.0 5-1/2
8 4 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B V Borges · W Y So 7 27.0 5-3/4
9 10 VOYAGE STAR V/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 3 14.0 6-1/2
10 13 ISLAND SURPRISE H- H W Lai · K L Man 9 247.0 7
11 14 A A AGILITY Closed strongly B H T Mo · L Ho 11 320.0 9
12 7 GO FOR TEA H Bentley · F C Lor 8 68.0 9
13 2 FIRE BALL TT K C Leung · C H Yip 14 49.0 10-1/4
14 11 NAMJONG CORTEZ B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 12 70.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUNNING GLORY2. LIFELINE VISION+3.25L3. SUPER MISSION+3.25L4. GOOD RUNNER+3.5L5. VUKAN+4.25L6. AMIGOS GIGGLE+5L7. LADY FIRST+5.5L8. HANG'S DECISION+5.75L9. VOYAGE STAR+6.5L10. ISLAND SURPRISE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RUNNING GLORY (24.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 RUNNING GLORY 24.5% 4.08 1
2 3 GOOD RUNNER 21.9% 4.56 4
3 8 VUKAN 14.0% 7.13 5
4 5 SUPER MISSION 10.6% 9.41 3
5 10 VOYAGE STAR 5.7% 17.64 9
6 7 GO FOR TEA 5.4% 18.39 12
7 2 FIRE BALL 3.5% 28.67 13
8 4 HANG'S DECISION 3.2% 30.89 8
9 1 LIFELINE VISION 2.9% 34.86 2
10 12 LADY FIRST 2.7% 37.12 7
11 9 AMIGOS GIGGLE 2.4% 40.85 6
12 11 NAMJONG CORTEZ 1.6% 62.27 14
13 14 A A AGILITY 1.0% 96.73 11
14 13 ISLAND SURPRISE 0.5% 221.83 10
RUNNING GLORY — wonGOOD RUNNERVUKANSUPER MISSIONVOYAGE STARGO FOR TEAFIRE BALLHANG'S DECISIONLIFELINE VISIONLADY FIRSTAMIGOS GIGGLENAMJONG CORTEZA A AGILITYISLAND SURPRISE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 35.5

PLACE

1 61.5

5 20

6 15

QUINELLA

1,6 516.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 264.5

1,6 146

5,6 41.5

FORECAST

6,1 708

TIERCE

6,1,5 4,332

TRIO

1,5,6 858

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 390

QUARTET

6,1,5,3 11,057

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 14.5

A3

7TH DOUBLE

5/1 267

5/6 222