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Sha Tin · 2022-01-09 · 16:43

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly 1.21.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 4 3.5 3-1/4
2 0 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly B- C Y Ho · D A Hayes 5 34.0 3-1/4
3 0 SUPER MISSION Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 6 7.3 3-1/4
4 0 GOOD RUNNER Closed strongly XB C L Chau · D J Hall 2 2.4 3-1/2
5 0 VUKAN Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 1 6.1 4-1/4
6 0 AMIGOS GIGGLE Led early K H Chan · C W Chang 13 51.0 5
7 0 LADY FIRST CP/H/XB/TT R Maia · A S Cruz 10 60.0 5-1/2
8 0 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B V Borges · W Y So 7 27.0 5-3/4
9 0 VOYAGE STAR V/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 3 14.0 6-1/2
10 0 ISLAND SURPRISE H- H W Lai · K L Man 9 247.0 7
11 0 A A AGILITY Closed strongly B H T Mo · L Ho 11 320.0 9
12 0 GO FOR TEA H Bentley · F C Lor 8 68.0 9
13 0 FIRE BALL TT K C Leung · C H Yip 14 49.0 10-1/4
14 0 NAMJONG CORTEZ B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 12 70.0 11

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-09 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. RUNNING GLORY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 3-1/4, with LIFELINE VISION second and SUPER MISSION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite GOOD RUNNER finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUNNING GLORY—2. LIFELINE VISION+3.25L3. SUPER MISSION+3.25L4. GOOD RUNNER+3.5L5. VUKAN+4.25L6. AMIGOS GIGGLE+5L7. LADY FIRST+5.5L8. HANG'S DECISION+5.75L9. VOYAGE STAR+6.5L10. ISLAND SURPRISE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RUNNING GLORY (24.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 RUNNING GLORY 24.5% 4.08 1
2 0 GOOD RUNNER 21.9% 4.56 4
3 0 VUKAN 14.0% 7.13 5
4 0 SUPER MISSION 10.6% 9.41 3
5 0 VOYAGE STAR 5.7% 17.64 9
6 0 GO FOR TEA 5.4% 18.39 12
7 0 FIRE BALL 3.5% 28.67 13
8 0 HANG'S DECISION 3.2% 30.89 8
9 0 LIFELINE VISION 2.9% 34.86 2
10 0 LADY FIRST 2.7% 37.12 7
11 0 AMIGOS GIGGLE 2.4% 40.85 6
12 0 NAMJONG CORTEZ 1.6% 62.27 14
13 0 A A AGILITY 1.0% 96.73 11
14 0 ISLAND SURPRISE 0.5% 221.83 10
RUNNING GLORY — wonGOOD RUNNERVUKANSUPER MISSIONVOYAGE STARGO FOR TEAFIRE BALLHANG'S DECISIONLIFELINE VISIONLADY FIRSTAMIGOS GIGGLENAMJONG CORTEZA A AGILITYISLAND SURPRISE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 35.5

PLACE

1 61.5

5 20

6 15

QUINELLA

1,6 516.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 264.5

1,6 146

5,6 41.5

FORECAST

6,1 708

TIERCE

6,1,5 4,332

TRIO

1,5,6 858

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 390

QUARTET

6,1,5,3 11,057

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 14.5

A2 —

A3 —

7TH DOUBLE

5/1 267

5/6 222