Sha Tin · 2022-01-09 · 14:12

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 9 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-09 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TEAM SPIRIT, ridden by K H Chan and trained by W Y So, won by SH, with GALLANT EXPRESS second and ARMOUR EAGLE third. The 2.3 favourite ARMOUR EAGLE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.36

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	TEAM SPIRIT B/TT 1.09.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · W Y So	K H Chan	W Y So	4	123 lb	13.0	SH
2	7	GALLANT EXPRESS E V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	7	119 lb	3.7	SH
3	4	ARMOUR EAGLE TT J Moreira · Y S Tsui	J Moreira	Y S Tsui	3	119 lb	2.3	1/2
4	5	CALIFORNIA SKY TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	1	119 lb	4.5	1/2
5	6	DOUBLE SIX POP M F Poon · A T Millard	M F Poon	A T Millard	9	117 lb	24.0	1-1/2
6	9	HANDSOME TWELVE CP1 K C Leung · T P Yung	K C Leung	T P Yung	6	118 lb	12.0	1-3/4
7	8	BEAUTY MISSION SR C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	8	118 lb	35.0	2-1/4
8	3	COMPASSION SPIRIT B C L Chau · K L Man	C L Chau	K L Man	5	118 lb	27.0	2-1/2
9	1	RACING FIGHTER B/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip	A Hamelin	C H Yip	2	131 lb	34.0	5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick ARMOUR EAGLE (36.8%) finished 3rd — the winner TEAM SPIRIT was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	ARMOUR EAGLE	36.8%	2.72	3	2.3
2	7	GALLANT EXPRESS	12.2%	8.18	2	3.7
3	3	COMPASSION SPIRIT	11.4%	8.77	8	27.0
4	5	CALIFORNIA SKY	11.1%	9.01	4	4.5
5	9	HANDSOME TWELVE	10.5%	9.49	6	12.0
6	2	TEAM SPIRIT	7.0%	14.22	1	13.0
7	8	BEAUTY MISSION	5.0%	19.86	7	35.0
8	6	DOUBLE SIX POP	3.5%	28.48	5	24.0
9	1	RACING FIGHTER	2.4%	41.90	9	34.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 130

PLACE

2 24.5

4 12

7 14

QUINELLA

2,7 176

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 47.5

2,7 53.5

4,7 21.5

FORECAST

2,7 462

TIERCE

2,7,4 1,113

TRIO

2,4,7 102

FIRST 4

2,4,5,7 68

QUARTET

2,7,4,5 3,365

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/2 392

2/7 25.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 23.5

A3 —

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