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Sha Tin · 2022-01-09 · 16:11

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD 1600m Course C 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-09 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. BELUGA, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with IMA SINGLE MAN second and THE IRISHMAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite MASTER DELIGHT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.35.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BELUGA Closed strongly H 1.35.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · D J Hall 3 5.2 1-1/4
2 2 IMA SINGLE MAN Led early B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 8 11.0 1-1/4
3 9 THE IRISHMAN Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 4.4 2
4 4 MASTER DELIGHT J Moreira · J Size 7 2.1 2-1/4
5 1 MASTER MONTARO CP C L Chau · D A Hayes 5 13.0 2-3/4
6 3 E STAR TT1 K Teetan · K L Man 1 28.0 2-3/4
7 7 CONQUEROR B/TT1 V Borges · D A Hayes 2 19.0 2-3/4
8 8 ROCKET SPADE TT K C Leung · C Fownes 6 13.0 5
9 6 S J TOURBILLON B1 H Bentley · P F Yiu 4 140.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BELUGA—2. IMA SINGLE MAN+1.25L3. THE IRISHMAN+2L4. MASTER DELIGHT+2.25L5. MASTER MONTARO+2.75L6. E STAR+2.75L7. CONQUEROR+2.75L8. ROCKET SPADE+5L9. S J TOURBILLON+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MASTER DELIGHT (43.5%) finished 4th — the winner BELUGA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MASTER DELIGHT 43.5% 2.30 4
2 5 BELUGA 12.1% 8.24 1
3 2 IMA SINGLE MAN 11.1% 9.00 2
4 9 THE IRISHMAN 8.7% 11.48 3
5 3 E STAR 8.2% 12.14 6
6 1 MASTER MONTARO 7.4% 13.43 5
7 8 ROCKET SPADE 5.6% 17.83 8
8 7 CONQUEROR 2.8% 35.77 7
9 6 S J TOURBILLON 0.5% 202.77 9
MASTER DELIGHTBELUGA — wonIMA SINGLE MANTHE IRISHMANE STARMASTER MONTAROROCKET SPADECONQUERORS J TOURBILLON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 52

PLACE

2 26

5 15

9 17

QUINELLA

2,5 217

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 58.5

2,9 60.5

5,9 35

FORECAST

5,2 408

TIERCE

5,2,9 1,547

TRIO

2,5,9 274

FIRST 4

2,4,5,9 79

QUARTET

5,2,9,4 3,100

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,10,12/2,5,9 10,867

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 15.5

A2 —

6TH DOUBLE

12/2 154

12/5 340

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