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Sha Tin · 2022-01-09 · 15:42

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. AUGUST MOON, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1-1/4, with SMART WONGCHOY second and CAPTAIN LONG third. The 2.7 favourite PINS PRINCE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 AUGUST MOON BO 1.09.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 5 10.0 1-1/4
2 10 SMART WONGCHOY CP/H C L Chau · D J Whyte 7 5.5 1-1/4
3 6 CAPTAIN LONG K C Leung · C H Yip 1 3.7 1-1/2
4 8 SMART LEADER B/TT V Borges · W Y So 9 18.0 1-3/4
5 1 PINS PRINCE H/P/TT J Moreira · J Size 8 2.7 2
6 9 SHINY TWO V1/TT1 L Ferraris · P F Yiu 12 159.0 2-1/2
7 2 MAKE IT QUICK B R Maia · R Gibson 3 111.0 2-1/2
8 4 INFINITY WIN B/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes 11 9.4 2-1/2
9 7 PAINTER K Teetan · Y S Tsui 2 17.0 3-1/2
10 3 TURBO POWER K H Chan · K W Lui 10 20.0 4
11 5 BELL OF VICTORY H T Mo · C W Chang 6 111.0 5-1/4
12 11 LITTLE BIRD V/TT H W Lai · K L Man 4 55.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AUGUST MOON2. SMART WONGCHOY+1.25L3. CAPTAIN LONG+1.5L4. SMART LEADER+1.75L5. PINS PRINCE+2L6. SHINY TWO+2.5L7. MAKE IT QUICK+2.5L8. INFINITY WIN+2.5L9. PAINTER+3.5L10. TURBO POWER+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick PINS PRINCE (37.1%) finished 5th — the winner AUGUST MOON was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PINS PRINCE 37.1% 2.70 5
2 12 AUGUST MOON 13.0% 7.67 1
3 6 CAPTAIN LONG 11.6% 8.59 3
4 4 INFINITY WIN 9.8% 10.16 8
5 3 TURBO POWER 8.4% 11.89 10
6 10 SMART WONGCHOY 6.7% 14.98 2
7 7 PAINTER 5.3% 18.83 9
8 8 SMART LEADER 3.0% 33.11 4
9 5 BELL OF VICTORY 2.4% 42.38 11
10 11 LITTLE BIRD 1.6% 62.68 12
11 2 MAKE IT QUICK 0.6% 165.41 7
12 9 SHINY TWO 0.4% 253.45 6
PINS PRINCEAUGUST MOON — wonCAPTAIN LONGINFINITY WINTURBO POWERSMART WONGCHOYPAINTERSMART LEADERBELL OF VICTORYLITTLE BIRDMAKE IT QUICKSHINY TWO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 106

PLACE

6 15

10 16

12 29

QUINELLA

10,12 240

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 38

6,12 70

10,12 70.5

FORECAST

12,10 540

TIERCE

12,10,6 2,648

TRIO

6,10,12 280

FIRST 4

6,8,10,12 920

QUARTET

12,10,6,8 24,837

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 24

A3

A1

5TH DOUBLE

2/10 31

2/12 513.5

TRIPLE TRIO

5,9,10/2,4,10/6,10,12 1,445,718

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,9,10/2,4,10/Any Combination 13,952