Sha Tin · 2022-01-09 · 14:41

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-09 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPER KIN, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with DRAGON PRIDE second and DIVINE ERA third. The winner led throughout. The 3.7 favourite BRAVE POWER finished 13th.

Result

Official · 1.23.13

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	SUPER KIN Wire to wire TT 1.23.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes	K H Chan	C Fownes	12	118 lb	13.0	N
2	10	DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly M Chadwick · T P Yung	M Chadwick	T P Yung	7	121 lb	4.6	N
3	5	DIVINE ERA TT K Teetan · K H Ting	K Teetan	K H Ting	1	130 lb	10.0	1
4	12	AEROSONIC Closed strongly PC/H1/TT2 H T Mo · C W Chang	H T Mo	C W Chang	9	111 lb	86.0	1-1/2
5	7	VICTORIOUS LEADER Closed strongly K C Leung · C H Yip	K C Leung	C H Yip	10	125 lb	12.0	2
6	3	SEIZE THE SPIRIT A Hamelin · Y S Tsui	A Hamelin	Y S Tsui	13	133 lb	25.0	2-3/4
7	1	DESTIN Closed strongly B C L Chau · P O'Sullivan	C L Chau	P O'Sullivan	11	130 lb	13.0	3
8	14	SMILING FACE SR/TT H W Lai · D J Whyte	H W Lai	D J Whyte	2	113 lb	11.0	3-3/4
9	11	SUPER FLAMES Closed strongly H Bentley · L Ho	H Bentley	L Ho	5	119 lb	71.0	4-1/2
10	13	SEA MONARCH H-/TT M L Yeung · W Y So	M L Yeung	W Y So	14	113 lb	18.0	6-1/4
11	2	GO GO SIXTEEN V/TT M F Poon · K W Lui	M F Poon	K W Lui	6	131 lb	7.9	6-1/2
12	8	INGENIOUS FELLOW PC/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson	L Ferraris	R Gibson	3	123 lb	21.0	6-3/4
13	6	BRAVE POWER B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz	C Y Ho	A S Cruz	4	128 lb	3.7	6-3/4
14	4	ALL BEST FRIENDS B V Borges · K L Man	V Borges	K L Man	8	132 lb	49.0	7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick BRAVE POWER (24.1%) finished 13th — the winner SUPER KIN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	BRAVE POWER	24.1%	4.15	13	3.7
2	9	SUPER KIN	9.9%	10.13	1	13.0
3	2	GO GO SIXTEEN	9.7%	10.30	11	7.9
4	7	VICTORIOUS LEADER	8.8%	11.34	5	12.0
5	5	DIVINE ERA	7.8%	12.82	3	10.0
6	14	SMILING FACE	7.1%	14.04	8	11.0
7	10	DRAGON PRIDE	6.8%	14.77	2	4.6
8	3	SEIZE THE SPIRIT	6.4%	15.61	6	25.0
9	1	DESTIN	5.7%	17.62	7	13.0
10	4	ALL BEST FRIENDS	5.5%	18.07	14	49.0
11	8	INGENIOUS FELLOW	3.1%	31.86	12	21.0
12	12	AEROSONIC	1.9%	52.63	4	86.0
13	13	SEA MONARCH	1.9%	52.69	10	18.0
14	11	SUPER FLAMES	1.3%	77.61	9	71.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 139

PLACE

5 34

9 44.5

10 19.5

QUINELLA

9,10 337

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 262

5,10 108.5

9,10 123.5

FORECAST

9,10 967

TIERCE

9,10,5 12,794

TRIO

5,9,10 1,469

FIRST 4

5,9,10,12 20,041

QUARTET

9,10,5,12 616,750

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,7/5,9,10 17,588

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 21.5

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE

2/9 1,484

2/10 99.5

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