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Happy Valley · 2022-01-12 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course B 8 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-12 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. LEGION OF MERIT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by HD, with CHAMPION PAL second and RED IMPACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite RED IMPACT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.17.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 LEGION OF MERIT Closed strongly B/TT 2.17.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So 7 9.1 HD
2 4 CHAMPION PAL Closed strongly B C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan 5 16.0 HD
3 5 RED IMPACT Z Purton · D A Hayes 1 2.1 2-1/4
4 8 GO BALLISTIC Led early SR/TT J Moreira · R Gibson 2 3.4 2-3/4
5 3 VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 8 18.0 4
6 6 STAR OF GLORY P-/B2 H T Mo · C W Chang 3 35.0 4-3/4
7 2 SUPER FAST XB/TT A Hamelin · K W Lui 4 16.0 8
8 9 SKY GEM P V Borges · C Fownes 6 6.9 8-1/4
1 STIMULATION M Chadwick · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LEGION OF MERIT2. CHAMPION PAL+0.2L3. RED IMPACT+2.25L4. GO BALLISTIC+2.75L5. VICTORIOUS SEEKER+4L6. STAR OF GLORY+4.75L7. SUPER FAST+8L8. SKY GEM+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RED IMPACT (37.8%) finished 3rd — the winner LEGION OF MERIT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 RED IMPACT 37.8% 2.65 3
2 8 GO BALLISTIC 29.5% 3.39 4
3 7 LEGION OF MERIT 8.3% 12.10 1
4 2 SUPER FAST 6.3% 15.90 7
5 4 CHAMPION PAL 6.1% 16.43 2
6 9 SKY GEM 5.3% 19.04 8
7 6 STAR OF GLORY 4.0% 24.98 6
8 3 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 2.8% 35.24 5
RED IMPACTGO BALLISTICLEGION OF MERIT — wonSUPER FASTCHAMPION PALSKY GEMSTAR OF GLORYVICTORIOUS SEEKER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 91.5

PLACE

4 37

5 11.5

7 24.5

QUINELLA

4,7 521.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 56.5

4,7 134

5,7 39

FORECAST

7,4 748

TIERCE

7,4,5 3,418

TRIO

4,5,7 461

FIRST 4

4,5,7,8 151

QUARTET

7,4,5,8 5,871

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 32

A1