Happy Valley · 2022-01-12 · 21:16
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPER DOBBIN, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with PARTY WARRIOR second and SIMPLY FLUKE third. The 3.6 favourite JAZZ ANGEL finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SUPER DOBBIN B 1.09.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 5 | 25.0 | N |
| 2 | 5 | PARTY WARRIOR H M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 10 | 6.9 | N |
| 3 | 2 | SIMPLY FLUKE B/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 4 | 12.0 | N |
| 4 | 6 | COLONEL K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 8 | 4.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | TURIN WARRIOR B/XB R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 6 | 51.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | FLAMING PASSION TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 7 | 8.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | FAULDS TT1 C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 9 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | ELON E/P V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 1 | 6.4 | 3 |
| 9 | 7 | GRACYLOVE L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 11 | 60.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 10 | EVER FORCE B/TT- M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 2 | 22.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | JAZZ ANGEL B1/H1/TT1 J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 3.6 | 4-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | JAZZ ANGEL | 26.1% | 3.82 | 11 |
| 2 | 1 | ELON | 20.7% | 4.83 | 8 |
| 3 | 5 | PARTY WARRIOR | 12.6% | 7.94 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | FLAMING PASSION | 9.3% | 10.78 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | COLONEL | 8.9% | 11.19 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | EVER FORCE | 5.2% | 19.30 | 10 |
| 7 | 3 | FAULDS | 4.9% | 20.57 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 4.7% | 21.17 | 3 |
| 9 | 4 | SUPER DOBBIN | 4.0% | 25.30 | 1 |
| 10 | 7 | GRACYLOVE | 2.6% | 38.32 | 9 |
| 11 | 8 | TURIN WARRIOR | 1.0% | 97.27 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 253.5
PLACE
2 34.5
4 59.5
5 23
QUINELLA
4,5 963
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 432
2,5 142.5
4,5 244.5
FORECAST
4,5 1,590
TIERCE
4,5,2 18,263
TRIO
2,4,5 4,615
FIRST 4
2,4,5,6 3,237
QUARTET
4,5,2,6 135,982
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 35
5TH DOUBLE
11/4 3,646.5
11/5 155.5