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Happy Valley · 2022-01-12 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-12 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SCOTCH TYCOON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with EXCELLENT PEERS second and KA YING SPIRIT third. The 2.4 favourite LIGHTNING STORM finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.57.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 SCOTCH TYCOON H 0.57.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 28.0 SH
2 8 EXCELLENT PEERS H/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 7 8.9 SH
3 2 KA YING SPIRIT B/TT1 K Teetan · D A Hayes 4 13.0 1/2
4 4 LIGHTNING STORM TT Z Purton · C S Shum 6 2.4 1
5 10 STAR OF WUYI B/TT- M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 9 38.0 1-1/4
6 1 JAZZ STEED TT J Moreira · C Fownes 8 6.8 2-1/2
7 9 SUPER COMMANDER B/TT V Borges · W Y So 3 6.6 3-1/4
8 7 SUPER CLASS L Ferraris · A T Millard 5 8.3 4-1/2
9 3 AMAZING ROCKY H K C Leung · T P Yung 10 19.0 4-3/4
10 12 PACKING CHAMPION H H T Mo · L Ho 12 24.0 5-1/4
11 11 TRAVEL DATUK B C Wong · R Gibson 1 34.0 6-3/4
12 5 DASHING GENIUS H/B1/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 11 142.0 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SCOTCH TYCOON2. EXCELLENT PEERS+0.1L3. KA YING SPIRIT+0.5L4. LIGHTNING STORM+1L5. STAR OF WUYI+1.25L6. JAZZ STEED+2.5L7. SUPER COMMANDER+3.25L8. SUPER CLASS+4.5L9. AMAZING ROCKY+4.75L10. PACKING CHAMPION+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LIGHTNING STORM (40.2%) finished 4th — the winner SCOTCH TYCOON was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 LIGHTNING STORM 40.2% 2.49 4
2 1 JAZZ STEED 13.4% 7.47 6
3 2 KA YING SPIRIT 13.3% 7.50 3
4 6 SCOTCH TYCOON 6.0% 16.54 1
5 7 SUPER CLASS 5.7% 17.64 8
6 12 PACKING CHAMPION 4.4% 22.87 10
7 8 EXCELLENT PEERS 4.1% 24.56 2
8 9 SUPER COMMANDER 3.3% 30.30 7
9 10 STAR OF WUYI 3.1% 32.26 5
10 3 AMAZING ROCKY 3.1% 32.53 9
11 11 TRAVEL DATUK 2.6% 38.85 11
12 5 DASHING GENIUS 0.9% 109.78 12
LIGHTNING STORMJAZZ STEEDKA YING SPIRITSCOTCH TYCOON — wonSUPER CLASSPACKING CHAMPIONEXCELLENT PEERSSUPER COMMANDERSTAR OF WUYIAMAZING ROCKYTRAVEL DATUKDASHING GENIUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 286.5

PLACE

2 36.5

6 66

8 26

QUINELLA

6,8 1,418

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 295

2,8 168

6,8 369

FORECAST

6,8 2,913

TIERCE

6,8,2 24,919

TRIO

2,6,8 3,539

FIRST 4

2,4,6,8 1,266

QUARTET

6,8,2,4 53,716

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/6 3,563.5

5/8 75.5

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 28