Happy Valley · 2022-01-12 · 19:46
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-12 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SCOTCH TYCOON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with EXCELLENT PEERS second and KA YING SPIRIT third. The 2.4 favourite LIGHTNING STORM finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SCOTCH TYCOON H 0.57.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 28.0 | SH |
| 2 | 8 | EXCELLENT PEERS H/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 7 | 8.9 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | KA YING SPIRIT B/TT1 K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 4 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | LIGHTNING STORM TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 6 | 2.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | STAR OF WUYI B/TT- M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 9 | 38.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | JAZZ STEED TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 8 | 6.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | SUPER COMMANDER B/TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 3 | 6.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SUPER CLASS L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 5 | 8.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | AMAZING ROCKY H K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 10 | 19.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | PACKING CHAMPION H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 12 | 24.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | TRAVEL DATUK B C Wong · R Gibson | C Wong | R Gibson | 1 | 34.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | DASHING GENIUS H/B1/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 11 | 142.0 | 14 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LIGHTNING STORM | 40.2% | 2.49 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | JAZZ STEED | 13.4% | 7.47 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | KA YING SPIRIT | 13.3% | 7.50 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 6.0% | 16.54 | 1 |
| 5 | 7 | SUPER CLASS | 5.7% | 17.64 | 8 |
| 6 | 12 | PACKING CHAMPION | 4.4% | 22.87 | 10 |
| 7 | 8 | EXCELLENT PEERS | 4.1% | 24.56 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | SUPER COMMANDER | 3.3% | 30.30 | 7 |
| 9 | 10 | STAR OF WUYI | 3.1% | 32.26 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | AMAZING ROCKY | 3.1% | 32.53 | 9 |
| 11 | 11 | TRAVEL DATUK | 2.6% | 38.85 | 11 |
| 12 | 5 | DASHING GENIUS | 0.9% | 109.78 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 286.5
PLACE
2 36.5
6 66
8 26
QUINELLA
6,8 1,418
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 295
2,8 168
6,8 369
FORECAST
6,8 2,913
TIERCE
6,8,2 24,919
TRIO
2,6,8 3,539
FIRST 4
2,4,6,8 1,266
QUARTET
6,8,2,4 53,716
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
5/6 3,563.5
5/8 75.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 28