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Happy Valley · 2022-01-12 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 11 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-12 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CHEERFUL DAYS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with GALLANT CROWN second and MALDIVES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite GALLANT CROWN finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.41.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B 1.41.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 6 5.3 1/2
2 6 GALLANT CROWN Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · A T Millard 4 2.5 1/2
3 2 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 2 8.4 1-1/2
4 11 RED MAJESTY Led early B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 9 11.0 2
5 4 PRESENCE Closed strongly C Y Ho · F C Lor 3 13.0 2-1/4
6 9 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C Fownes 10 15.0 2-1/4
7 8 WORLD FAMOUS V M F Poon · P F Yiu 1 8.4 3
8 10 PERFECT MARYKNOLL Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 11 20.0 5-1/4
9 5 SMILING TIME CP/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 5 64.0 6
10 7 SMOOTHIES B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 8 16.0 6-1/4
11 3 INCANTO PREPARED E/TT V Borges · J Size 7 27.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHEERFUL DAYS2. GALLANT CROWN+0.5L3. MALDIVES+1.5L4. RED MAJESTY+2L5. PRESENCE+2.25L6. NEARLY FINE+2.25L7. WORLD FAMOUS+3L8. PERFECT MARYKNOLL+5.25L9. SMILING TIME+6L10. SMOOTHIES+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick GALLANT CROWN (29.8%) finished 2nd — the winner CHEERFUL DAYS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 GALLANT CROWN 29.8% 3.36 2
2 1 CHEERFUL DAYS 14.4% 6.95 1
3 4 PRESENCE 9.7% 10.30 5
4 11 RED MAJESTY 9.4% 10.60 4
5 8 WORLD FAMOUS 7.9% 12.62 7
6 2 MALDIVES 7.4% 13.53 3
7 7 SMOOTHIES 7.4% 13.58 10
8 9 NEARLY FINE 4.4% 22.52 6
9 10 PERFECT MARYKNOLL 4.2% 23.60 8
10 3 INCANTO PREPARED 4.1% 24.42 11
11 5 SMILING TIME 1.2% 81.98 9
GALLANT CROWNCHEERFUL DAYS — wonPRESENCERED MAJESTYWORLD FAMOUSMALDIVESSMOOTHIESNEARLY FINEPERFECT MARYKNOLLINCANTO PREPAREDSMILING TIME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 53

PLACE

1 19

2 27.5

6 14

QUINELLA

1,6 66.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 79.5

1,6 29.5

2,6 50

FORECAST

1,6 208

TIERCE

1,6,2 712

TRIO

1,2,6 174

FIRST 4

1,2,6,11 220

QUARTET

1,6,2,11 4,912

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 17

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

7,8,10/1,2,6 14,364

8TH DOUBLE

7/1 224.5

7/6 20

SIX UP

1,7/1,11/4,5/3,6/7,8/1,6 4,387

8 [K C Leung]

TREBLE

3/7/1 821

3/7/6 106