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Happy Valley · 2022-01-12 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B 1.41.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 6 5.3 1/2
2 0 GALLANT CROWN Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · A T Millard 4 2.5 1/2
3 0 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 2 8.4 1-1/2
4 0 RED MAJESTY Led early B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 9 11.0 2
5 0 PRESENCE Closed strongly C Y Ho · F C Lor 3 13.0 2-1/4
6 0 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C Fownes 10 15.0 2-1/4
7 0 WORLD FAMOUS V M F Poon · P F Yiu 1 8.4 3
8 0 PERFECT MARYKNOLL Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 11 20.0 5-1/4
9 0 SMILING TIME CP/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 5 64.0 6
10 0 SMOOTHIES B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 8 16.0 6-1/4
11 0 INCANTO PREPARED E/TT V Borges · J Size 7 27.0 10

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-12 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CHEERFUL DAYS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with GALLANT CROWN second and MALDIVES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite GALLANT CROWN finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHEERFUL DAYS—2. GALLANT CROWN+0.5L3. MALDIVES+1.5L4. RED MAJESTY+2L5. PRESENCE+2.25L6. NEARLY FINE+2.25L7. WORLD FAMOUS+3L8. PERFECT MARYKNOLL+5.25L9. SMILING TIME+6L10. SMOOTHIES+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick GALLANT CROWN (29.8%) finished 2nd — the winner CHEERFUL DAYS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GALLANT CROWN 29.8% 3.36 2
2 0 CHEERFUL DAYS 14.4% 6.95 1
3 0 PRESENCE 9.7% 10.30 5
4 0 RED MAJESTY 9.4% 10.60 4
5 0 WORLD FAMOUS 7.9% 12.62 7
6 0 MALDIVES 7.4% 13.53 3
7 0 SMOOTHIES 7.4% 13.58 10
8 0 NEARLY FINE 4.4% 22.52 6
9 0 PERFECT MARYKNOLL 4.2% 23.60 8
10 0 INCANTO PREPARED 4.1% 24.42 11
11 0 SMILING TIME 1.2% 81.98 9
GALLANT CROWNCHEERFUL DAYS — wonPRESENCERED MAJESTYWORLD FAMOUSMALDIVESSMOOTHIESNEARLY FINEPERFECT MARYKNOLLINCANTO PREPAREDSMILING TIME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 53

PLACE

1 19

2 27.5

6 14

QUINELLA

1,6 66.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 79.5

1,6 29.5

2,6 50

FORECAST

1,6 208

TIERCE

1,6,2 712

TRIO

1,2,6 174

FIRST 4

1,2,6,11 220

QUARTET

1,6,2,11 4,912

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 17

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

7,8,10/1,2,6 14,364

8TH DOUBLE

7/1 224.5

7/6 20

SIX UP

1,7/1,11/4,5/3,6/7,8/1,6 4,387

8 [K C Leung] —

TREBLE

3/7/1 821

3/7/6 106