Happy Valley · 2022-01-12 · 22:18
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-12 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SPECIAL M, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by N, with STOLTZ second and GOLD MARQUIS third. The 3.0 favourite STOLTZ finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SPECIAL M B/TT 0.56.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 3 | 4.1 | N |
| 2 | 8 | STOLTZ M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 6 | 3.0 | N |
| 3 | 10 | GOLD MARQUIS TT1 K C Leung · C Fownes | K C Leung | C Fownes | 7 | 26.0 | N |
| 4 | 2 | BE READY V2 C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 4 | 15.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | HARMONY FIRE XB/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte | Z Purton | D J Whyte | 2 | 5.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | HEART CONQUERED R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 8 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | CALIFORNIA FOREST H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 5 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | STORM WARNINGS B-/TT- L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 9 | 56.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | WINE AND WINE B/TT C Wong · T P Yung | C Wong | T P Yung | 1 | 24.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | GINSON B1/TT H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 11 | 53.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SERGEANT PEPPER CP- J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 10 | 23.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | JOYFUL WIN B M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 12 | 9.4 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SPECIAL M | 26.5% | 3.77 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | STOLTZ | 13.7% | 7.27 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | JOYFUL WIN | 11.6% | 8.62 | 12 |
| 4 | 1 | HARMONY FIRE | 11.2% | 8.93 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | CALIFORNIA FOREST | 9.3% | 10.71 | 7 |
| 6 | 2 | BE READY | 7.0% | 14.26 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | WINE AND WINE | 5.2% | 19.31 | 9 |
| 8 | 9 | HEART CONQUERED | 4.6% | 21.74 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 3.8% | 26.21 | 11 |
| 10 | 6 | GINSON | 3.2% | 31.52 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | STORM WARNINGS | 2.3% | 42.59 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | GOLD MARQUIS | 1.5% | 68.95 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 41
PLACE
7 15.5
8 15
10 76.5
QUINELLA
7,8 66.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 30.5
7,10 191.5
8,10 163.5
FORECAST
7,8 141
TIERCE
7,8,10 3,095
TRIO
7,8,10 635
FIRST 4
2,7,8,10 1,552
QUARTET
7,8,10,2 25,457
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 17.5
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
3/7 192
3/8 36.5