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Happy Valley · 2022-01-12 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SMART IDEA, ridden by H Bentley and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with SPICY GRILL second and BELLA BABY third. The 2.7 favourite SAVVY DELIGHT finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.10.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SMART IDEA H/TT 1.10.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · F C Lor 3 5.6 N
2 6 SPICY GRILL B/TT K Teetan · K W Lui 5 6.9 N
3 8 BELLA BABY XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 9 50.0 3/4
4 11 HANDSOME REBEL B V Borges · Y S Tsui 10 55.0 1-3/4
5 12 LUCKY MARYKNOLL TT R Maia · D A Hayes 4 14.0 2-1/4
6 9 SO AWESOME B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 2 5.7 2-1/2
7 10 BIG TWO H/XB/SR1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 1 9.8 3-1/4
8 2 SAVVY DELIGHT TT J Moreira · J Size 6 2.7 5-1/2
9 4 SINGAPORE SPIRIT B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 7 13.0 7-3/4
10 1 ISLAND SHINE B-/BO1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 8 25.0 8-1/4
11 5 NOIR RIDER B/TT- K C Leung · T P Yung 11 61.0 10
12 7 NOBODY KNOWS H H T Mo · L Ho 12 171.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMART IDEA2. SPICY GRILL+0.05L3. BELLA BABY+0.75L4. HANDSOME REBEL+1.75L5. LUCKY MARYKNOLL+2.25L6. SO AWESOME+2.5L7. BIG TWO+3.25L8. SAVVY DELIGHT+5.5L9. SINGAPORE SPIRIT+7.75L10. ISLAND SHINE+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SAVVY DELIGHT (21.4%) finished 8th — the winner SMART IDEA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SAVVY DELIGHT 21.4% 4.67 8
2 3 SMART IDEA 13.5% 7.41 1
3 9 SO AWESOME 11.5% 8.67 6
4 6 SPICY GRILL 11.3% 8.83 2
5 4 SINGAPORE SPIRIT 10.8% 9.28 9
6 12 LUCKY MARYKNOLL 10.3% 9.68 5
7 10 BIG TWO 5.7% 17.52 7
8 5 NOIR RIDER 5.7% 17.53 11
9 1 ISLAND SHINE 4.8% 20.88 10
10 8 BELLA BABY 2.8% 35.10 3
11 11 HANDSOME REBEL 1.7% 58.16 4
12 7 NOBODY KNOWS 0.4% 265.50 12
SAVVY DELIGHTSMART IDEA — wonSO AWESOMESPICY GRILLSINGAPORE SPIRITLUCKY MARYKNOLLBIG TWONOIR RIDERISLAND SHINEBELLA BABYHANDSOME REBELNOBODY KNOWS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 56.5

PLACE

3 19

6 18

8 112.5

QUINELLA

3,6 149.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 46

3,8 320

6,8 353

FORECAST

3,6 336

TIERCE

3,6,8 7,362

TRIO

3,6,8 1,367

FIRST 4

3,6,8,11 9,655

QUARTET

3,6,8,11 104,500

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,5/3,6,8 251,617

3 PICK 1

A2 23.5

A3

A1

6TH DOUBLE

4/3 1,406.5

4/6 355

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,11/2,4,5/Any Combination 48,625