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Sha Tin · 2022-01-30 · 13:02

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-30 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MIRACLE VICTORY, ridden by L Currie and trained by D A Hayes, won by SH, with VOYAGE BUBBLE second and BRILLIANT WAY third. The 1.7 favourite BRILLIANT WAY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 MIRACLE VICTORY TT1 1.09.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · D A Hayes 6 22.0 SH
2 10 VOYAGE BUBBLE K Teetan · P F Yiu 12 12.0 SH
3 3 BRILLIANT WAY J Moreira · J Size 10 1.7 N
4 14 SMART WONGCHOY CP/H L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 8.9 1-1/2
5 2 KING OF THE COURT Z Purton · W Y So 7 4.8 1-3/4
6 11 HERO STAR TT K C Leung · K L Man 2 19.0 2-3/4
7 5 CELESTIAL WARRIOR TT D Moor · K W Lui 3 238.0 3-3/4
8 8 SUPER HIGHWAY H Bentley · F C Lor 11 14.0 4
9 12 KOKUSHI MUSOU H/TT A Badel · C Fownes 5 82.0 5-3/4
10 1 FANTASY B/XB B Shinn · C W Chang 14 47.0 6
11 6 CIRCUIT ELITE B/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 13 41.0 6-3/4
12 9 TUNG HAYE HAYE TT1 C L Chau · C S Shum 4 131.0 8
13 4 BUDDY SPIRIT V Borges · C H Yip 8 263.0 11
14 7 EASY LIFE TT1 A Hamelin · K H Ting 9 219.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIRACLE VICTORY2. VOYAGE BUBBLE+0.1L3. BRILLIANT WAY+0.05L4. SMART WONGCHOY+1.5L5. KING OF THE COURT+1.75L6. HERO STAR+2.75L7. CELESTIAL WARRIOR+3.75L8. SUPER HIGHWAY+4L9. KOKUSHI MUSOU+5.75L10. FANTASY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BRILLIANT WAY (26.8%) finished 3rd — the winner MIRACLE VICTORY was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BRILLIANT WAY 26.8% 3.74 3
2 2 KING OF THE COURT 20.0% 4.99 5
3 14 SMART WONGCHOY 8.3% 12.01 4
4 10 VOYAGE BUBBLE 8.3% 12.06 2
5 9 TUNG HAYE HAYE 5.3% 18.77 12
6 11 HERO STAR 5.3% 18.82 6
7 1 FANTASY 5.3% 18.98 10
8 6 CIRCUIT ELITE 5.2% 19.35 11
9 8 SUPER HIGHWAY 5.0% 19.89 8
10 13 MIRACLE VICTORY 4.8% 20.71 1
11 7 EASY LIFE 2.1% 46.78 14
12 12 KOKUSHI MUSOU 2.1% 48.32 9
13 5 CELESTIAL WARRIOR 0.7% 135.77 7
14 4 BUDDY SPIRIT 0.7% 144.30 13
BRILLIANT WAYKING OF THE COURTSMART WONGCHOYVOYAGE BUBBLETUNG HAYE HAYEHERO STARFANTASYCIRCUIT ELITESUPER HIGHWAYMIRACLE VICTORY — wonEASY LIFEKOKUSHI MUSOUCELESTIAL WARRIORBUDDY SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 227.5

PLACE

3 11.5

10 33

13 47

QUINELLA

10,13 963.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 45.5

3,13 70.5

10,13 233.5

FORECAST

13,10 2,143

TIERCE

13,10,3 5,984

TRIO

3,10,13 447

FIRST 4

3,10,13,14 522

QUARTET

13,10,3,14 24,602

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 48.5

A1

A3