Sha Tin · 2022-01-30 · 17:48

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-30 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. KURPANY, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with CZARSON second and DUKE WAI third. The 3.2 favourite RED DESERT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.11

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	KURPANY B/TT 1.08.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes	K H Chan	C Fownes	6	128 lb	6.8	1-1/4
2	6	CZARSON CP/TT V Borges · P F Yiu	V Borges	P F Yiu	11	116 lb	7.8	1-1/4
3	1	DUKE WAI B/H M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan	M Chadwick	P O'Sullivan	9	133 lb	10.0	1-3/4
4	4	RED DESERT J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	2	118 lb	3.2	3
5	5	KA YING MASTER TT C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	10	116 lb	10.0	4-1/2
6	7	MAN STAR V K Teetan · K H Ting	K Teetan	K H Ting	7	114 lb	7.1	5-1/4
7	3	SILVER FIG B/TT B Shinn · A T Millard	B Shinn	A T Millard	8	128 lb	10.0	5-3/4
8	8	SUNNY BOY B/TT D Moor · W Y So	D Moor	W Y So	12	114 lb	47.0	6-1/2
9	10	CONGRATULATION B-/XB- M L Yeung · D A Hayes	M L Yeung	D A Hayes	5	113 lb	34.0	7-3/4
10	11	GUNNISON H W Lai · Y S Tsui	H W Lai	Y S Tsui	3	113 lb	41.0	9-1/4
11	9	BEAR AGAIN SR A Badel · D J Hall	A Badel	D J Hall	1	113 lb	60.0	10
12	12	WHEN YOU BELIEVE CP-/B1/TT M F Poon · F C Lor	M F Poon	F C Lor	4	111 lb	9.3	11

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick RED DESERT (19.9%) finished 4th — the winner KURPANY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	RED DESERT	19.9%	5.01	4	3.2
2	12	WHEN YOU BELIEVE	16.7%	5.99	12	9.3
3	7	MAN STAR	12.7%	7.87	6	7.1
4	2	KURPANY	10.6%	9.43	1	6.8
5	6	CZARSON	7.3%	13.79	2	7.8
6	1	DUKE WAI	6.4%	15.64	3	10.0
7	8	SUNNY BOY	6.1%	16.43	8	47.0
8	5	KA YING MASTER	6.1%	16.46	5	10.0
9	9	BEAR AGAIN	4.6%	21.67	11	60.0
10	11	GUNNISON	4.3%	23.01	10	41.0
11	3	SILVER FIG	3.4%	29.24	7	10.0
12	10	CONGRATULATION	1.8%	54.09	9	34.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 68

PLACE

1 28.5

2 18.5

6 28

QUINELLA

2,6 364.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 76.5

1,6 159

2,6 119

FORECAST

2,6 601

TIERCE

2,6,1 3,920

TRIO

1,2,6 1,127

FIRST 4

1,2,4,6 538

QUARTET

2,6,1,4 16,345

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 21.5

A3 —

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,9/1,2,6 40,664

9TH DOUBLE

7/2 363.5

7/6 87.5

SIX UP

9/2/10/6/7/2 65,468

9,10/2,10/7,10/1,4,6/1,7/2,6 1,380

2 [K Teetan] —

TREBLE

6/7/2 2,517

6/7/6 501

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