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Sha Tin · 2022-01-30 · 14:06

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-30 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. VOYAGE STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with LADY FIRST second and SALUTATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite SUPER MISSION finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 VOYAGE STAR Closed strongly V/TT 1.22.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · T P Yung 9 15.0 SH
2 13 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 6 43.0 SH
3 7 SALUTATION Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 1 7.9 1
4 2 SUPER MISSION Led early H/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 4 2.9 1-1/2
5 12 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B L Currie · D J Hall 7 22.0 2
6 9 AMIGOS GIGGLE K H Chan · C W Chang 2 16.0 2-1/4
7 14 WISDOM PATCH Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 11 7.0 2-3/4
8 6 SWIFT SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT2 H W Lai · K L Man 10 38.0 3
9 5 PEAK TO PEAK B/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 13 20.0 4-1/2
10 8 THE MULTIPLIER Closed strongly CP/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes 12 62.0 4-1/2
11 1 STORMTROUPER XB Z Purton · C H Yip 3 4.2 5-1/4
12 10 JUBILATION Closed strongly V L Hewitson · L Ho 14 269.0 7-1/2
13 3 GOLDEN BOLT SR/XB/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 5 12.0 8-1/4
4 FUN N GLORY C Y Ho · W Y So

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VOYAGE STAR2. LADY FIRST+0.1L3. SALUTATION+1L4. SUPER MISSION+1.5L5. RED BRICK FIGHTER+2L6. AMIGOS GIGGLE+2.25L7. WISDOM PATCH+2.75L8. SWIFT SPIRIT+3L9. PEAK TO PEAK+4.5L10. THE MULTIPLIER+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SALUTATION (22.2%) finished 3rd — the winner VOYAGE STAR was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SALUTATION 22.2% 4.50 3
2 1 STORMTROUPER 17.4% 5.76 11
3 2 SUPER MISSION 13.5% 7.38 4
4 3 GOLDEN BOLT 9.8% 10.20 13
5 12 RED BRICK FIGHTER 6.7% 14.90 5
6 5 PEAK TO PEAK 5.6% 17.92 9
7 9 AMIGOS GIGGLE 5.5% 18.32 6
8 13 LADY FIRST 5.1% 19.54 2
9 11 VOYAGE STAR 4.8% 20.87 1
10 14 WISDOM PATCH 4.0% 24.95 7
11 6 SWIFT SPIRIT 2.9% 34.59 8
12 8 THE MULTIPLIER 2.1% 46.92 10
13 10 JUBILATION 0.4% 271.19 12
SALUTATIONSTORMTROUPERSUPER MISSIONGOLDEN BOLTRED BRICK FIGHTERPEAK TO PEAKAMIGOS GIGGLELADY FIRSTVOYAGE STAR — wonWISDOM PATCHSWIFT SPIRITTHE MULTIPLIERJUBILATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 159

PLACE

7 25

11 44.5

13 95

QUINELLA

11,13 2,981.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,11 186.5

7,13 473

11,13 900

FORECAST

11,13 7,372

TIERCE

11,13,7 53,621

TRIO

7,11,13 6,748

FIRST 4

2,7,11,13 4,063

QUARTET

11,13,7,2 205,729

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/11 1,536

2/13 274.5

3 PICK 1

A3 20

A1

A2