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Sha Tin · 2022-01-30 · 14:06

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 VOYAGE STAR Closed strongly V/TT 1.22.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · T P Yung 9 15.0 SH
2 0 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 6 43.0 SH
3 0 SALUTATION Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 1 7.9 1
4 0 SUPER MISSION Led early H/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 4 2.9 1-1/2
5 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B L Currie · D J Hall 7 22.0 2
6 0 AMIGOS GIGGLE K H Chan · C W Chang 2 16.0 2-1/4
7 0 WISDOM PATCH Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 11 7.0 2-3/4
8 0 SWIFT SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT2 H W Lai · K L Man 10 38.0 3
9 0 PEAK TO PEAK B/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 13 20.0 4-1/2
10 0 THE MULTIPLIER Closed strongly CP/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes 12 62.0 4-1/2
11 0 STORMTROUPER XB Z Purton · C H Yip 3 4.2 5-1/4
12 0 JUBILATION Closed strongly V L Hewitson · L Ho 14 269.0 7-1/2
13 0 GOLDEN BOLT SR/XB/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 5 12.0 8-1/4
— 0 FUN N GLORY C Y Ho · W Y So — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-30 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. VOYAGE STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with LADY FIRST second and SALUTATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite SUPER MISSION finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VOYAGE STAR—2. LADY FIRST+0.1L3. SALUTATION+1L4. SUPER MISSION+1.5L5. RED BRICK FIGHTER+2L6. AMIGOS GIGGLE+2.25L7. WISDOM PATCH+2.75L8. SWIFT SPIRIT+3L9. PEAK TO PEAK+4.5L10. THE MULTIPLIER+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SALUTATION (22.2%) finished 3rd — the winner VOYAGE STAR was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SALUTATION 22.2% 4.50 3
2 0 STORMTROUPER 17.4% 5.76 11
3 0 SUPER MISSION 13.5% 7.38 4
4 0 GOLDEN BOLT 9.8% 10.20 13
5 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER 6.7% 14.90 5
6 0 PEAK TO PEAK 5.6% 17.92 9
7 0 AMIGOS GIGGLE 5.5% 18.32 6
8 0 LADY FIRST 5.1% 19.54 2
9 0 VOYAGE STAR 4.8% 20.87 1
10 0 WISDOM PATCH 4.0% 24.95 7
11 0 SWIFT SPIRIT 2.9% 34.59 8
12 0 THE MULTIPLIER 2.1% 46.92 10
13 0 JUBILATION 0.4% 271.19 12
SALUTATIONSTORMTROUPERSUPER MISSIONGOLDEN BOLTRED BRICK FIGHTERPEAK TO PEAKAMIGOS GIGGLELADY FIRSTVOYAGE STAR — wonWISDOM PATCHSWIFT SPIRITTHE MULTIPLIERJUBILATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 159

PLACE

7 25

11 44.5

13 95

QUINELLA

11,13 2,981.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,11 186.5

7,13 473

11,13 900

FORECAST

11,13 7,372

TIERCE

11,13,7 53,621

TRIO

7,11,13 6,748

FIRST 4

2,7,11,13 4,063

QUARTET

11,13,7,2 205,729

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/11 1,536

2/13 274.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 20