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Sha Tin · 2022-01-30 · 14:36

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-30 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. YOUNG VICTORY, ridden by A Badel and trained by W Y So, won by 2-1/2, with DESTIN second and SUPER KIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite SUNNY BABY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 YOUNG VICTORY Closed strongly TT 1.22.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · W Y So 11 12.0 2-1/2
2 6 DESTIN Closed strongly B L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 1 9.2 2-1/2
3 13 SUPER KIN TT K H Chan · C Fownes 4 13.0 2-3/4
4 8 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly CP1 J Moreira · D A Hayes 13 4.3 3-1/4
5 7 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B-/V1 L Ferraris · P F Yiu 12 39.0 3-1/4
6 2 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly B2 B Shinn · C W Chang 3 14.0 4-1/4
7 12 BRAVE POWER Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 6 10.0 5
8 5 BRILLIANT CHINA B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 5 10.0 5-3/4
9 10 PEARL CHAMPION B K C Leung · C H Yip 7 12.0 6-1/2
10 11 THE JOLLY Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 14 43.0 6-1/2
11 14 SUPER FLAMES TT1 M L Yeung · L Ho 8 103.0 6-3/4
12 1 FORTUNE MASTER B K Teetan · K W Lui 10 43.0 8-1/2
13 4 ZACIAN Led early CP1 Z Purton · C S Shum 9 4.6 10-1/4
14 9 ALEE KING PRAWN B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 2 13.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YOUNG VICTORY2. DESTIN+2.5L3. SUPER KIN+2.75L4. SUNNY BABY+3.25L5. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+3.25L6. GOLDEN FOUR+4.25L7. BRAVE POWER+5L8. BRILLIANT CHINA+5.75L9. PEARL CHAMPION+6.5L10. THE JOLLY+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUNNY BABY (20.3%) finished 4th — the winner YOUNG VICTORY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SUNNY BABY 20.3% 4.92 4
2 4 ZACIAN 19.8% 5.05 13
3 3 YOUNG VICTORY 8.9% 11.22 1
4 12 BRAVE POWER 8.8% 11.42 7
5 13 SUPER KIN 7.6% 13.18 3
6 5 BRILLIANT CHINA 6.8% 14.62 8
7 2 GOLDEN FOUR 5.5% 18.26 6
8 11 THE JOLLY 4.3% 23.08 10
9 1 FORTUNE MASTER 4.2% 24.09 12
10 9 ALEE KING PRAWN 4.1% 24.16 14
11 10 PEARL CHAMPION 3.7% 27.13 9
12 7 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 2.5% 39.74 5
13 6 DESTIN 1.8% 54.63 2
14 14 SUPER FLAMES 1.7% 60.21 11
SUNNY BABYZACIANYOUNG VICTORY — wonBRAVE POWERSUPER KINBRILLIANT CHINAGOLDEN FOURTHE JOLLYFORTUNE MASTERALEE KING PRAWNPEARL CHAMPIONWINWIN THIRTYTHREEDESTINSUPER FLAMES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 121.5

PLACE

3 43.5

6 30

13 28.5

QUINELLA

3,6 644

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 223.5

3,13 258.5

6,13 187

FORECAST

3,6 1,709

TIERCE

3,6,13 14,079

TRIO

3,6,13 2,453

FIRST 4

3,6,8,13 2,995

QUARTET

3,6,13,8 95,793

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

7,11,13/3,6,13 2,008,070

3 PICK 1

A3 19.5

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE

11/3 2,607

11/6 322