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Sha Tin · 2022-01-30 · 16:06

Race 7

Group 3 GOOD 1800m Course A+3 10 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-30 was Group 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. ZEBROWSKI, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with BUTTERFIELD second and SAVVY NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite EXCELLENT PROPOSAL finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.46.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 ZEBROWSKI Closed strongly TT 1.46.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C Fownes 3 4.3 SH
2 7 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly TT V Borges · C S Shum 4 25.0 SH
3 9 SAVVY NINE Closed strongly B/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte 8 19.0 1/2
4 4 TOURBILLON DIAMOND B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 5 5.3 3/4
5 6 CHAMPION'S WAY P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 1 19.0 1-3/4
6 5 COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 11.0 2-1/4
7 1 KA YING STAR Led early V/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 2 11.0 3
8 2 PANFIELD TT B Shinn · A T Millard 6 25.0 5-1/4
9 8 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL E J Moreira · J Size 9 2.4 5-1/2
10 3 RELIABLE TEAM B K C Leung · F C Lor 10 27.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ZEBROWSKI2. BUTTERFIELD+0.1L3. SAVVY NINE+0.5L4. TOURBILLON DIAMOND+0.75L5. CHAMPION'S WAY+1.75L6. COLUMBUS COUNTY+2.25L7. KA YING STAR+3L8. PANFIELD+5.25L9. EXCELLENT PROPOSAL+5.5L10. RELIABLE TEAM+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick EXCELLENT PROPOSAL (29.6%) finished 9th — the winner ZEBROWSKI was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 29.6% 3.38 9
2 10 ZEBROWSKI 25.3% 3.96 1
3 4 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 14.1% 7.11 4
4 1 KA YING STAR 8.3% 12.01 7
5 9 SAVVY NINE 4.4% 22.95 3
6 7 BUTTERFIELD 4.2% 23.68 2
7 5 COLUMBUS COUNTY 4.0% 24.87 6
8 3 RELIABLE TEAM 3.7% 27.05 10
9 2 PANFIELD 3.3% 30.66 8
10 6 CHAMPION'S WAY 3.2% 31.38 5
EXCELLENT PROPOSALZEBROWSKI — wonTOURBILLON DIAMONDKA YING STARSAVVY NINEBUTTERFIELDCOLUMBUS COUNTYRELIABLE TEAMPANFIELDCHAMPION'S WAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 43.5

PLACE

7 54

9 48.5

10 16

QUINELLA

7,10 451

QUINELLA PLACE

7,9 493.5

7,10 126.5

9,10 107.5

FORECAST

10,7 771

TIERCE

10,7,9 6,988

TRIO

7,9,10 2,354

FIRST 4

4,7,9,10 2,149

QUARTET

10,7,9,4 53,680

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,10/7,9,10 701,874

3 PICK 1

A2 27.5

A3

A1

6TH DOUBLE

2/7 259

2/10 206.5

WINNING TRAINER

B1

B3

B4

B2 32