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Happy Valley · 2022-02-06 · 17:48

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 10 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-06 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SAVVY KINGMAN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with MEANINGFUL STAR second and EXCEPTIONAL NICE third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.50.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SAVVY KINGMAN Wire to wire 1.50.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 8 4.0 2
2 6 MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B H Bentley · K W Lui 1 4.5 2
3 8 EXCEPTIONAL NICE E C Y Ho · W Y So 7 5.7 2
4 10 ENSURED Closed strongly L Ferraris · D J Hall 4 60.0 3-1/4
5 2 RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly TT A Badel · C S Shum 5 8.2 3-1/2
6 5 INTREPID WINNER B A Hamelin · A T Millard 6 7.1 4
7 4 CINQUANTE CINQ B C L Chau · T P Yung 3 12.0 4-1/4
8 7 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 11 37.0 4-3/4
9 12 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · C W Chang 12 26.0 4-3/4
10 11 GOD OF DRAGON B/XB D Moor · D J Whyte 9 44.0 6
11 1 HIT THE SHOT B/TT K C Leung · J Size 2 17.0 6
12 9 MAJESTIC VICTORY TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 10 15.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SAVVY KINGMAN2. MEANINGFUL STAR+2L3. EXCEPTIONAL NICE+2L4. ENSURED+3.25L5. RISE BRETHREN+3.5L6. INTREPID WINNER+4L7. CINQUANTE CINQ+4.25L8. STORM LEGEND+4.75L9. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+4.75L10. GOD OF DRAGON+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SAVVY KINGMAN (24.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SAVVY KINGMAN 24.2% 4.13 1
2 8 EXCEPTIONAL NICE 11.6% 8.65 3
3 2 RISE BRETHREN 10.9% 9.19 5
4 6 MEANINGFUL STAR 9.9% 10.08 2
5 9 MAJESTIC VICTORY 8.7% 11.48 12
6 5 INTREPID WINNER 8.5% 11.79 6
7 11 GOD OF DRAGON 6.6% 15.10 10
8 4 CINQUANTE CINQ 5.6% 17.85 7
9 1 HIT THE SHOT 4.7% 21.15 11
10 12 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 4.2% 23.77 9
11 7 STORM LEGEND 3.6% 27.74 8
12 10 ENSURED 1.5% 68.37 4
SAVVY KINGMAN — wonEXCEPTIONAL NICERISE BRETHRENMEANINGFUL STARMAJESTIC VICTORYINTREPID WINNERGOD OF DRAGONCINQUANTE CINQHIT THE SHOTRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINESTORM LEGENDENSURED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 40

PLACE

3 16.5

6 17

8 18

QUINELLA

3,6 85

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 32

3,8 40

6,8 46.5

FORECAST

3,6 167

TIERCE

3,6,8 496

TRIO

3,6,8 117

FIRST 4

3,6,8,10 1,405

QUARTET

3,6,8,10 19,045

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 23.5

A3

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,11/3,6,8 1,370

9TH DOUBLE

11/3 113

11/6 15.5

SIX UP

8,9/1,8/4,6/1,5/1,11/3,6 46,735

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

5/11/3 22,302

5/11/6 3,005