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Happy Valley · 2022-02-06 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.42.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT 1.42.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz 11 3.1 1/2
2 0 EEVEE Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D A Hayes 4 4.3 1/2
3 0 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B K C Leung · C H Yip 12 15.0 1-1/4
4 0 RAINBOW LIGHT Closed strongly CP/SR/XB/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 8 12.0 1-1/4
5 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly B-/XB/CP2/H2 A Hamelin · D J Hall 1 10.0 1-1/2
6 0 FOXHUNTER WAY Closed strongly H/SR1 A Badel · K W Lui 7 51.0 1-1/2
7 0 EVER LAUGH Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 9 8.2 1-1/2
8 0 SMILING CITY Closed strongly SR/TT- H Bentley · D J Whyte 10 22.0 1-3/4
9 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY Led early H/TT K H Chan · W Y So 5 7.8 2-1/4
10 0 ROYAL AGILITY B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 3 98.0 9
11 0 CABLE SPEED D Moor · T P Yung 6 115.0 12
12 0 SHADOW BREAKER SR/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 12.0 14

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. VIVA POPCORN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with EEVEE second and GLORIOUS LOVER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VIVA POPCORN—2. EEVEE+0.5L3. GLORIOUS LOVER+1.25L4. RAINBOW LIGHT+1.25L5. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR+1.5L6. FOXHUNTER WAY+1.5L7. EVER LAUGH+1.5L8. SMILING CITY+1.75L9. FAITHFUL TRINITY+2.25L10. ROYAL AGILITY+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick VIVA POPCORN (31.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 VIVA POPCORN 31.3% 3.20 1
2 0 EEVEE 12.1% 8.29 2
3 0 EVER LAUGH 9.4% 10.63 7
4 0 RAINBOW LIGHT 8.7% 11.51 4
5 0 SHADOW BREAKER 8.5% 11.74 12
6 0 GLORIOUS LOVER 7.3% 13.72 3
7 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 6.7% 14.96 5
8 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY 6.3% 15.76 9
9 0 SMILING CITY 3.1% 32.72 8
10 0 FOXHUNTER WAY 2.9% 34.06 6
11 0 CABLE SPEED 2.1% 46.86 11
12 0 ROYAL AGILITY 1.6% 62.28 10
VIVA POPCORN — wonEEVEEEVER LAUGHRAINBOW LIGHTSHADOW BREAKERGLORIOUS LOVERYEE CHEONG WARRIORFAITHFUL TRINITYSMILING CITYFOXHUNTER WAYCABLE SPEEDROYAL AGILITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 31

PLACE

4 35

5 14

11 15.5

QUINELLA

5,11 72.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 82

4,11 115

5,11 33.5

FORECAST

5,11 128

TIERCE

5,11,4 1,236

TRIO

4,5,11 321

FIRST 4

2,4,5,11 469

QUARTET

5,11,4,2 5,611

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

7/5 272

7/11 66.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 18