Happy Valley · 2022-02-06 · 14:31
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-06 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. LIGHTNING STORM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 3, with PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN second and EXCELLENT PEERS third. The 2.1 favourite PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LIGHTNING STORM TT 0.57.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 2 | 3.4 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 4 | 2.1 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | EXCELLENT PEERS H/TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 1 | 5.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | KA YING SPIRIT B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 3 | 8.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | PACKING CHAMPION H M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 10 | 42.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | GORGEOUS VITALITY C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 7 | 66.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | HAPPY TIME B-/TT D Moor · C H Yip | D Moor | C H Yip | 5 | 42.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | NORDIC COMBINED B1/TT1 R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 12 | 73.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | NOIR RIDER B K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 6 | 22.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 8 | 108.0 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | HANDSOME GUYS B- L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 11 | 111.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING B/TT H Bentley · K L Man | H Bentley | K L Man | 9 | 68.0 | 13 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LIGHTNING STORM | 36.0% | 2.78 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | KA YING SPIRIT | 17.5% | 5.71 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | EXCELLENT PEERS | 13.4% | 7.44 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN | 11.8% | 8.47 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | HAPPY TIME | 4.3% | 23.01 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 3.8% | 26.58 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | NOIR RIDER | 3.7% | 27.15 | 9 |
| 8 | 5 | NORDIC COMBINED | 3.1% | 31.82 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING | 2.8% | 35.94 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | PACKING CHAMPION | 1.5% | 65.87 | 5 |
| 11 | 10 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 1.4% | 71.79 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | HANDSOME GUYS | 0.7% | 151.78 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 34
PLACE
3 13
4 15
6 13
QUINELLA
3,6 41.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 32.5
3,6 20.5
4,6 27
FORECAST
3,6 95
TIERCE
3,6,4 269
TRIO
3,4,6 52
FIRST 4
1,3,4,6 40
QUARTET
3,6,4,1 700
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,11/3,4,6 1,498
3 PICK 1
A1 20.5
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
5/3 127
5/6 16