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Sha Tin · 2022-02-12 · 14:02

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MIRACLE VICTORY TT 1.09.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D A Hayes 3 4.8 1/2
2 0 TRUST ME B/H K C Leung · C H Yip 4 8.7 1/2
3 0 DURHAM STAR XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 10.0 1-1/2
4 0 GOLDEN EMPIRE Z Purton · K W Lui 6 1.7 1-1/2
5 0 BELLA BABY XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 12 28.0 3-3/4
6 0 MOMENTUM GALAXY B M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 49.0 4-1/4
7 0 FANTASY B/XB H T Mo · C W Chang 1 60.0 4-3/4
8 0 ENCORE TT D Moor · C S Shum 8 162.0 8
9 0 E BROTHER CP/TT K Teetan · K L Man 10 12.0 8-1/2
10 0 STAR OF WUYI B M F Poon · Y S Tsui 5 28.0 10-1/2
11 0 ENDOWED P-/H V Borges · J Size 7 124.0 12-1/2
12 0 ALL IS READY R Maia · P F Yiu 9 45.0 13-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MIRACLE VICTORY, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with TRUST ME second and DURHAM STAR third. The 1.7 favourite GOLDEN EMPIRE finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIRACLE VICTORY—2. TRUST ME+0.5L3. DURHAM STAR+1.5L4. GOLDEN EMPIRE+1.5L5. BELLA BABY+3.75L6. MOMENTUM GALAXY+4.25L7. FANTASY+4.75L8. ENCORE+8L9. E BROTHER+8.5L10. STAR OF WUYI+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick GOLDEN EMPIRE (43.9%) finished 4th — the winner MIRACLE VICTORY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GOLDEN EMPIRE 43.9% 2.28 4
2 0 MIRACLE VICTORY 16.9% 5.91 1
3 0 TRUST ME 7.7% 13.04 2
4 0 STAR OF WUYI 7.3% 13.61 10
5 0 E BROTHER 5.0% 20.00 9
6 0 ALL IS READY 4.4% 22.79 12
7 0 DURHAM STAR 4.1% 24.49 3
8 0 BELLA BABY 3.4% 29.03 5
9 0 FANTASY 3.3% 30.43 7
10 0 MOMENTUM GALAXY 1.8% 55.10 6
11 0 ENCORE 1.2% 80.37 8
12 0 ENDOWED 0.9% 114.01 11
GOLDEN EMPIREMIRACLE VICTORY — wonTRUST MESTAR OF WUYIE BROTHERALL IS READYDURHAM STARBELLA BABYFANTASYMOMENTUM GALAXYENCOREENDOWED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 48.5

PLACE

4 15.5

7 20.5

10 26.5

QUINELLA

4,7 140.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 45

4,10 61.5

7,10 83.5

FORECAST

4,7 275

TIERCE

4,7,10 1,635

TRIO

4,7,10 367

FIRST 4

2,4,7,10 110

QUARTET

4,7,10,2 4,961

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/4 5,998

1/7 3,077.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 13