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Sha Tin · 2022-02-12 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-12 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY LIVE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with PERFECT PAIR second and CIRCUIT STELLAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly TT 1.22.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor 12 2.1 1/2
2 10 PERFECT PAIR Closed strongly SR H Bentley · K H Ting 7 9.7 1/2
3 1 CIRCUIT STELLAR Closed strongly TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 9 6.4 1
4 7 SUPER WINNER Led early TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 5 15.0 1-1/2
5 6 REGENCY BO BO Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · C S Shum 10 50.0 1-3/4
6 8 GOLD MARQUIS Closed strongly TT D Moor · C Fownes 11 7.5 2
7 5 HEZA BEAUTY B/E A Hamelin · J Size 1 25.0 3-1/4
8 11 FEARLESS FIRE XB M L Yeung · D A Hayes 2 45.0 3-1/2
9 2 SEATTLE CHOICE K Teetan · A T Millard 3 28.0 3-3/4
10 4 GOLDEN LINK K H Chan · P F Yiu 6 14.0 4
11 3 PRIVATE ROCKET CP/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 12.0 4
12 9 DUBLIN STAR B/TT V Borges · K L Man 8 50.0 5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY LIVE2. PERFECT PAIR+0.5L3. CIRCUIT STELLAR+1L4. SUPER WINNER+1.5L5. REGENCY BO BO+1.75L6. GOLD MARQUIS+2L7. HEZA BEAUTY+3.25L8. FEARLESS FIRE+3.5L9. SEATTLE CHOICE+3.75L10. GOLDEN LINK+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick CIRCUIT STELLAR (30.3%) finished 3rd — the winner BEAUTY LIVE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CIRCUIT STELLAR 30.3% 3.31 3
2 12 BEAUTY LIVE 10.7% 9.37 1
3 3 PRIVATE ROCKET 9.2% 10.88 11
4 8 GOLD MARQUIS 8.1% 12.34 6
5 10 PERFECT PAIR 7.8% 12.85 2
6 4 GOLDEN LINK 6.7% 15.03 10
7 5 HEZA BEAUTY 6.4% 15.51 7
8 7 SUPER WINNER 5.5% 18.12 4
9 11 FEARLESS FIRE 5.4% 18.60 8
10 2 SEATTLE CHOICE 3.9% 25.59 9
11 9 DUBLIN STAR 3.6% 27.88 12
12 6 REGENCY BO BO 2.5% 39.85 5
CIRCUIT STELLARBEAUTY LIVE — wonPRIVATE ROCKETGOLD MARQUISPERFECT PAIRGOLDEN LINKHEZA BEAUTYSUPER WINNERFEARLESS FIRESEATTLE CHOICEDUBLIN STARREGENCY BO BO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 21.5

PLACE

1 19

10 22

12 12.5

QUINELLA

10,12 95

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 77.5

1,12 34

10,12 42

FORECAST

12,10 136

TIERCE

12,10,1 492

TRIO

1,10,12 158

FIRST 4

1,7,10,12 492

QUARTET

12,10,1,7 4,919

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 16

8TH DOUBLE

13/10 274.5

13/12 511.5