Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2022-02-12 · 16:38

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-12 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. APACHE PASS, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1-1/4, with TRUE LEGEND second and ULTRA EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite TRUE LEGEND finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.38.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 APACHE PASS Closed strongly BO/XB 1.38.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 2 11.0 1-1/4
2 8 TRUE LEGEND Led early B K Teetan · F C Lor 11 3.4 1-1/4
3 2 ULTRA EXPRESS Closed strongly B1/TT R Maia · A T Millard 13 15.0 5-1/4
4 9 KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly A Hamelin · D A Hayes 9 16.0 5-1/2
5 5 CHAMPION DRAGON Closed strongly H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 1 12.0 5-3/4
6 14 ROYAL CAMPBELL CP/H M L Yeung · P F Yiu 3 66.0 6
7 11 ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 5 24.0 8-1/4
8 4 BEAR SLAM Closed strongly SR D Moor · D J Hall 6 19.0 10-1/4
9 10 ROMANTIC COMBO Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 14 12.0 10-1/2
10 1 SIGHT SPIRIT P1 V Borges · J Size 8 3.8 11-1/2
11 6 AMAZING CHOCOLATE Closed strongly B C Wong · T P Yung 12 47.0 12-1/4
12 3 TURIN REDSTAR B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 10 20.0 12-3/4
13 12 SMILING TIME B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 4 73.0 13
14 7 ELITE PATCH B/H/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 7 10.0 20-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. APACHE PASS2. TRUE LEGEND+1.25L3. ULTRA EXPRESS+5.25L4. KING'S CAPITAL+5.5L5. CHAMPION DRAGON+5.75L6. ROYAL CAMPBELL+6L7. ROYAL PRIDE+8.25L8. BEAR SLAM+10.25L9. ROMANTIC COMBO+10.5L10. SIGHT SPIRIT+11.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ULTRA EXPRESS (19.2%) finished 3rd — the winner APACHE PASS was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ULTRA EXPRESS 19.2% 5.20 3
2 10 ROMANTIC COMBO 16.0% 6.26 9
3 7 ELITE PATCH 10.3% 9.75 14
4 1 SIGHT SPIRIT 9.9% 10.11 10
5 5 CHAMPION DRAGON 9.2% 10.84 5
6 8 TRUE LEGEND 7.7% 12.94 2
7 9 KING'S CAPITAL 5.6% 17.84 4
8 3 TURIN REDSTAR 4.8% 20.65 12
9 13 APACHE PASS 4.6% 21.93 1
10 11 ROYAL PRIDE 3.4% 29.12 7
11 6 AMAZING CHOCOLATE 3.3% 30.31 11
12 4 BEAR SLAM 2.3% 43.49 8
13 12 SMILING TIME 2.2% 45.19 13
14 14 ROYAL CAMPBELL 1.4% 69.56 6
ULTRA EXPRESSROMANTIC COMBOELITE PATCHSIGHT SPIRITCHAMPION DRAGONTRUE LEGENDKING'S CAPITALTURIN REDSTARAPACHE PASS — wonROYAL PRIDEAMAZING CHOCOLATEBEAR SLAMSMILING TIMEROYAL CAMPBELL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 118.5

PLACE

2 44.5

8 15

13 34.5

QUINELLA

8,13 202

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 97

2,13 262.5

8,13 80

FORECAST

13,8 725

TIERCE

13,8,2 5,710

TRIO

2,8,13 600

FIRST 4

2,8,9,13 2,792

QUARTET

13,8,2,9 66,942

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 22.5

A2

A1

7TH DOUBLE

9/8 1,079.5

9/13 12,894.5