Sha Tin · 2022-02-12 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-12 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SKYEY SUPREME, ridden by C L Chau and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with BLOTTING PAPER second and EL VALIENTE third. The winner led throughout. The 3.0 favourite EL VALIENTE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.39.55

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	SKYEY SUPREME Wire to wire B/TT 1.39.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · K W Lui	C L Chau	K W Lui	14	130 lb	12.0	1-1/4
2	10	BLOTTING PAPER TT A Hamelin · R Gibson	A Hamelin	R Gibson	8	118 lb	23.0	1-1/4
3	11	EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C Fownes	K Teetan	C Fownes	3	114 lb	3.0	2-1/4
4	5	STEEL WIN V Borges · C W Chang	V Borges	C W Chang	5	124 lb	18.0	3-1/2
5	8	SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · C S Shum	R Maia	C S Shum	6	121 lb	15.0	5-1/2
6	6	SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly V/TT L Hewitson · K H Ting	L Hewitson	K H Ting	7	123 lb	13.0	5-3/4
7	12	TRAVEL GLORY B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui	M L Yeung	Y S Tsui	13	113 lb	57.0	6-1/2
8	14	LONDON LUCKYSTAR PC M F Poon · L Ho	M F Poon	L Ho	1	111 lb	11.0	7-1/4
9	9	WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte	H Bentley	D J Whyte	4	119 lb	94.0	8-1/2
10	13	RUN RUN GOOD Closed strongly B/TT H W Lai · K L Man	H W Lai	K L Man	12	113 lb	37.0	9-1/4
11	3	SPLENDID LIVING Closed strongly H/XB/TT1 K C Leung · P F Yiu	K C Leung	P F Yiu	10	127 lb	46.0	9-1/2
12	2	ALL JOYFUL B M Chadwick · T P Yung	M Chadwick	T P Yung	2	132 lb	4.3	11
13	4	BOOM STITCH CP Z Purton · W Y So	Z Purton	W Y So	11	125 lb	6.3	11-3/4
14	7	SICOMORO H2/TT D Moor · D A Hayes	D Moor	D A Hayes	9	121 lb	51.0	12

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick EL VALIENTE (24.7%) finished 3rd — the winner SKYEY SUPREME was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	11	EL VALIENTE	24.7%	4.06	3	3.0
2	4	BOOM STITCH	18.6%	5.38	13	6.3
3	14	LONDON LUCKYSTAR	9.3%	10.73	8	11.0
4	13	RUN RUN GOOD	8.6%	11.67	10	37.0
5	2	ALL JOYFUL	8.1%	12.31	12	4.3
6	5	STEEL WIN	7.1%	14.03	4	18.0
7	8	SUNNY DELIGHT	4.7%	21.49	5	15.0
8	1	SKYEY SUPREME	4.3%	23.16	1	12.0
9	10	BLOTTING PAPER	4.2%	24.01	2	23.0
10	6	SUPER ELEGANCE	2.7%	37.30	6	13.0
11	3	SPLENDID LIVING	2.6%	38.11	11	46.0
12	12	TRAVEL GLORY	2.3%	42.90	7	57.0
13	7	SICOMORO	2.2%	44.55	14	51.0
14	9	WONDER YEARS	0.6%	164.93	9	94.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 129.5

PLACE

1 41.5

10 57

11 14.5

QUINELLA

1,10 1,203.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 262.5

1,11 85

10,11 110

FORECAST

1,10 1,644

TIERCE

1,10,11 11,671

TRIO

1,10,11 1,282

FIRST 4

1,5,10,11 3,159

QUARTET

1,10,11,5 95,815

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 31

5TH DOUBLE

13/1 2,212.5

13/10 665.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,12/Any Combination/Any Combination 61

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