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Sha Tin · 2022-02-12 · 15:16

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-12 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. GLENEALY GENERALS, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C H Yip, won by NOSE, with FLYING SEASON second and CHEVAL VALIANT third. The 2.6 favourite KA YING LUCKY finished 12th.

Result

Official · 0.56.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 GLENEALY GENERALS B 0.56.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C H Yip 10 20.0 NOSE
2 4 FLYING SEASON TT1 C L Chau · K L Man 6 37.0 NOSE
3 12 CHEVAL VALIANT XB-/B/H/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 10.0 N
4 5 HAPPY GOOD GUYS B K H Chan · P F Yiu 5 13.0 3/4
5 6 INFINITY WIN B/TT D Moor · D A Hayes 13 6.0 1
6 1 TURBO POWER K Teetan · K W Lui 1 13.0 1-1/4
7 2 FLYING HIGH H/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 4 10.0 1-1/4
8 14 ACA POWER H W Lai · Y S Tsui 8 96.0 1-3/4
9 8 THE GOOD DEAL B1/TT1 H T Mo · C W Chang 2 145.0 2-1/4
10 9 WONDERFUL HORSE TT1 M F Poon · C Fownes 14 7.1 3
11 11 SUPER CLASS B1 L Ferraris · A T Millard 3 23.0 4-1/2
12 7 KA YING LUCKY Z Purton · D J Hall 11 2.6 5
13 10 SPICY SO GOOD B/TT V Borges · C S Shum 12 21.0 12-3/4
3 KOWLOON EAST STAR R Maia · K H Ting

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLENEALY GENERALS2. FLYING SEASON+0.05L3. CHEVAL VALIANT+0.05L4. HAPPY GOOD GUYS+0.75L5. INFINITY WIN+1L6. TURBO POWER+1.25L7. FLYING HIGH+1.25L8. ACA POWER+1.75L9. THE GOOD DEAL+2.25L10. WONDERFUL HORSE+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick KA YING LUCKY (33.4%) finished 12th — the winner GLENEALY GENERALS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 KA YING LUCKY 33.4% 2.99 12
2 1 TURBO POWER 12.9% 7.78 6
3 6 INFINITY WIN 9.3% 10.75 5
4 2 FLYING HIGH 7.8% 12.90 7
5 13 GLENEALY GENERALS 6.1% 16.45 1
6 5 HAPPY GOOD GUYS 5.7% 17.55 4
7 4 FLYING SEASON 5.6% 17.99 2
8 9 WONDERFUL HORSE 5.5% 18.07 10
9 12 CHEVAL VALIANT 5.2% 19.23 3
10 10 SPICY SO GOOD 4.3% 23.45 13
11 11 SUPER CLASS 2.5% 39.60 11
12 14 ACA POWER 1.1% 89.81 8
13 8 THE GOOD DEAL 0.7% 142.75 9
KA YING LUCKYTURBO POWERINFINITY WINFLYING HIGHGLENEALY GENERALS — wonHAPPY GOOD GUYSFLYING SEASONWONDERFUL HORSECHEVAL VALIANTSPICY SO GOODSUPER CLASSACA POWERTHE GOOD DEAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 204

PLACE

4 103

12 32.5

13 37

QUINELLA

4,13 3,478

QUINELLA PLACE

4,12 566

4,13 864.5

12,13 226.5

FORECAST

13,4 4,589

TIERCE

13,4,12 71,809

TRIO

4,12,13 10,968

FIRST 4

4,5,12,13 11,416

QUARTET

13,4,12,5 321,195

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 32

4TH DOUBLE

1/4 181

1/13 601