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Sha Tin · 2022-02-20 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 2 GOOD TO YIELDING 2000m Course A 7 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-20 was Class 2 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. LOOKING GREAT, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with ENJOYING second and CHARITY GO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite BERLIN TANGO finished 4th.

Result

Official · 2.05.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 LOOKING GREAT Closed strongly TT 2.05.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · F C Lor 2 2.9 1/2
2 5 ENJOYING B/TT A Badel · W Y So 4 5.1 1/2
3 1 CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR M F Poon · C S Shum 7 6.4 3/4
4 4 BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 1 2.7 1-1/4
5 6 TIANCHI MONSTER K C Leung · W Y So 6 15.0 3-1/2
6 3 SUPER FOOTBALL Led early B/TT1 A Hamelin · K H Ting 5 26.0 6-1/2
7 2 DELIGHTFUL LAOS B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 3 18.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOOKING GREAT—2. ENJOYING+0.5L3. CHARITY GO+0.75L4. BERLIN TANGO+1.25L5. TIANCHI MONSTER+3.5L6. SUPER FOOTBALL+6.5L7. DELIGHTFUL LAOS+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BERLIN TANGO (39.0%) finished 4th — the winner LOOKING GREAT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 BERLIN TANGO 39.0% 2.56 4
2 7 LOOKING GREAT 23.4% 4.28 1
3 1 CHARITY GO 11.8% 8.50 3
4 5 ENJOYING 10.4% 9.57 2
5 6 TIANCHI MONSTER 8.7% 11.51 5
6 2 DELIGHTFUL LAOS 4.0% 25.10 7
7 3 SUPER FOOTBALL 2.8% 36.26 6
BERLIN TANGOLOOKING GREAT — wonCHARITY GOENJOYINGTIANCHI MONSTERDELIGHTFUL LAOSSUPER FOOTBALL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 29.5

PLACE

1 13.5

5 17

7 13

QUINELLA

5,7 81

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 42

1,7 26.5

5,7 27

FORECAST

7,5 144

TIERCE

7,5,1 370

TRIO

1,5,7 90

FIRST 4

1,4,5,7 29

QUARTET

7,5,1,4 695

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 14

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 2000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99