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Sha Tin · 2022-02-20 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-20 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. MILLENNIUM FALCON, ridden by H Bentley and trained by T P Yung, won by 2, with LIFELINE VISION second and FREE FOAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite FREE FOAL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.24.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MILLENNIUM FALCON Closed strongly H 1.24.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · T P Yung 2 4.6 2
2 1 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly C Y Ho · D A Hayes 3 15.0 2
3 10 FREE FOAL CP Z Purton · F C Lor 10 3.1 2
4 7 MOERAKI Closed strongly B B Shinn · C W Chang 12 23.0 2-1/4
5 2 SCIENCE PATCH Closed strongly B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 1 11.0 2-1/2
6 14 NOBLE BOYZ Closed strongly SR/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 5 30.0 2-3/4
7 9 FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 11 27.0 3-1/4
8 12 SALUTATION Led early V Borges · J Size 8 14.0 3-1/2
9 5 LOVE ME MORE Closed strongly CP1 R Maia · P F Yiu 13 29.0 3-3/4
10 8 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly B D Moor · K W Lui 6 21.0 6
11 11 PRIDE OF DRAGON B1 K H Chan · C H Yip 9 20.0 6-1/4
12 4 YOUNG PASSION CP1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 4 132.0 8-1/4
13 13 LADY FIRST CP/H/XB/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 7 9.3 8-1/4
14 3 SUPER WIN DRAGON V1/TT A Badel · W Y So 14 10.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MILLENNIUM FALCON—2. LIFELINE VISION+2L3. FREE FOAL+2L4. MOERAKI+2.25L5. SCIENCE PATCH+2.5L6. NOBLE BOYZ+2.75L7. FANTASTIC SHOW+3.25L8. SALUTATION+3.5L9. LOVE ME MORE+3.75L10. NOBLE STEED+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MILLENNIUM FALCON (18.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MILLENNIUM FALCON 18.8% 5.33 1
2 10 FREE FOAL 13.2% 7.57 3
3 12 SALUTATION 11.9% 8.42 8
4 3 SUPER WIN DRAGON 9.1% 10.95 14
5 2 SCIENCE PATCH 9.0% 11.13 5
6 1 LIFELINE VISION 6.6% 15.07 2
7 8 NOBLE STEED 6.4% 15.52 10
8 13 LADY FIRST 6.2% 16.15 13
9 11 PRIDE OF DRAGON 4.5% 22.33 11
10 5 LOVE ME MORE 4.2% 23.97 9
11 7 MOERAKI 4.0% 25.06 4
12 14 NOBLE BOYZ 2.7% 37.30 6
13 9 FANTASTIC SHOW 2.1% 46.85 7
14 4 YOUNG PASSION 1.3% 76.50 12
MILLENNIUM FALCON — wonFREE FOALSALUTATIONSUPER WIN DRAGONSCIENCE PATCHLIFELINE VISIONNOBLE STEEDLADY FIRSTPRIDE OF DRAGONLOVE ME MOREMOERAKINOBLE BOYZFANTASTIC SHOWYOUNG PASSION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 46.5

PLACE

1 40

6 16

10 15

QUINELLA

1,6 343.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 103

1,10 84.5

6,10 37

FORECAST

6,1 492

TIERCE

6,1,10 2,376

TRIO

1,6,10 383

FIRST 4

1,6,7,10 2,006

QUARTET

6,1,10,7 41,083

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 18.5

4TH DOUBLE

1,10/1 47.5

1,10/6 105.5

← Race 4 Race 6 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99