Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2022-02-20 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course A 13 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. VOYAGE BUBBLE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3, with BRAVE DREAMS second and FORTUNE CARRIER third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.11.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 VOYAGE BUBBLE 1.11.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu 12 1.7 3
2 3 BRAVE DREAMS H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 18.0 3
3 9 FORTUNE CARRIER B-/TT- D Moor · C S Shum 13 27.0 3
4 12 ROYAL AGILITY B/TT2 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 6 47.0 3-1/4
5 2 KING OF THE COURT K Teetan · W Y So 3 5.9 4-3/4
6 5 GALLANT HERO M F Poon · D J Hall 1 22.0 5
7 6 SPICY SKEWER R Maia · K L Man 2 28.0 5-1/2
8 4 FIERY FLYING K C Leung · A T Millard 11 27.0 5-3/4
9 14 INESTIMABLE B-/TT1 V Borges · D A Hayes 5 34.0 6-1/4
10 13 DRAGON BABY E/PC/TT A Badel · J Size 9 7.2 7-3/4
11 8 VITRALITE SR-/XB B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 4 21.0 8-1/2
12 11 NOIR RIDER B H T Mo · T P Yung 10 78.0 11-1/4
13 7 GOLD GOLD BABY XB-/B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 50.0 11-1/2
10 SUPER HIGHWAY H Bentley · F C Lor

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VOYAGE BUBBLE2. BRAVE DREAMS+3L3. FORTUNE CARRIER+3L4. ROYAL AGILITY+3.25L5. KING OF THE COURT+4.75L6. GALLANT HERO+5L7. SPICY SKEWER+5.5L8. FIERY FLYING+5.75L9. INESTIMABLE+6.25L10. DRAGON BABY+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick VOYAGE BUBBLE (34.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 VOYAGE BUBBLE 34.7% 2.88 1
2 2 KING OF THE COURT 20.1% 4.98 5
3 13 DRAGON BABY 8.4% 11.96 10
4 3 BRAVE DREAMS 5.3% 18.99 2
5 6 SPICY SKEWER 5.2% 19.14 7
6 8 VITRALITE 4.8% 20.79 11
7 5 GALLANT HERO 4.7% 21.33 6
8 9 FORTUNE CARRIER 4.7% 21.50 3
9 4 FIERY FLYING 3.9% 25.91 8
10 14 INESTIMABLE 2.8% 35.76 9
11 7 GOLD GOLD BABY 2.4% 41.96 13
12 11 NOIR RIDER 2.2% 45.63 12
13 12 ROYAL AGILITY 1.0% 98.71 4
VOYAGE BUBBLE — wonKING OF THE COURTDRAGON BABYBRAVE DREAMSSPICY SKEWERVITRALITEGALLANT HEROFORTUNE CARRIERFIERY FLYINGINESTIMABLEGOLD GOLD BABYNOIR RIDERROYAL AGILITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 17.5

PLACE

1 11.5

3 36.5

9 62.5

QUINELLA

1,3 164.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 63

1,9 96

3,9 488.5

FORECAST

1,3 180

TIERCE

1,3,9 3,712

TRIO

1,3,9 1,137

FIRST 4

1,3,9,12 8,852

QUARTET

1,3,9,12 72,388

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,4/3,9>1,10 29,121

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 13.5

3RD DOUBLE

4/1,10 163.5

4/3 140.5