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Sha Tin · 2022-02-20 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-20 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. LEADING FORTUNE, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 2-1/2, with RIGHT AS RAIN second and LOTUS FAVORITES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite LIGHT OF WANSHI finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.37.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly B 1.37.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size 8 7.0 2-1/2
2 7 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B K Teetan · C W Chang 13 7.6 2-1/2
3 13 LOTUS FAVORITES Closed strongly H L Hewitson · D J Hall 7 39.0 3
4 10 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/XB B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 10 21.0 3-1/2
5 2 LIGHT OF WANSHI Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So 3 2.9 4
6 4 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 4 17.0 5-1/4
7 9 RED ELYSEES B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 9 10.0 7-1/4
8 14 MOONLUCK H- D Moor · K W Lui 5 40.0 9-1/4
9 1 BEAUTY SPIRIT B/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz 2 12.0 9-3/4
10 6 MISSION BRAVO Led early B-/H/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 12 83.0 10-1/2
11 8 EMBARKED B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 20.0 17
12 12 CORDYCEPS TWO V Borges · C H Yip 14 7.5 18-1/2
13 11 DRAGON COMMANDER B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 54.0 22-3/4
14 5 JOYFUL HEART B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 11 16.0 32-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LEADING FORTUNE2. RIGHT AS RAIN+2.5L3. LOTUS FAVORITES+3L4. TURQUOISE ALPHA+3.5L5. LIGHT OF WANSHI+4L6. CITY LEGEND+5.25L7. RED ELYSEES+7.25L8. MOONLUCK+9.25L9. BEAUTY SPIRIT+9.75L10. MISSION BRAVO+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LIGHT OF WANSHI (26.5%) finished 5th — the winner LEADING FORTUNE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LIGHT OF WANSHI 26.5% 3.78 5
2 3 LEADING FORTUNE 12.1% 8.26 1
3 7 RIGHT AS RAIN 10.4% 9.60 2
4 9 RED ELYSEES 10.1% 9.94 7
5 5 JOYFUL HEART 7.6% 13.22 14
6 10 TURQUOISE ALPHA 6.5% 15.43 4
7 1 BEAUTY SPIRIT 6.2% 16.24 9
8 12 CORDYCEPS TWO 5.2% 19.09 12
9 4 CITY LEGEND 4.7% 21.25 6
10 14 MOONLUCK 4.1% 24.37 8
11 8 EMBARKED 2.9% 34.31 11
12 11 DRAGON COMMANDER 1.9% 52.26 13
13 6 MISSION BRAVO 0.9% 105.96 10
14 13 LOTUS FAVORITES 0.9% 108.04 3
LIGHT OF WANSHILEADING FORTUNE — wonRIGHT AS RAINRED ELYSEESJOYFUL HEARTTURQUOISE ALPHABEAUTY SPIRITCORDYCEPS TWOCITY LEGENDMOONLUCKEMBARKEDDRAGON COMMANDERMISSION BRAVOLOTUS FAVORITES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 70

PLACE

3 20.5

7 26.5

13 95.5

QUINELLA

3,7 227.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 78

3,13 439.5

7,13 357

FORECAST

3,7 545

TIERCE

3,7,13 15,714

TRIO

3,7,13 2,213

FIRST 4

3,7,10,13 10,243

QUARTET

3,7,13,10 193,028

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 20.5

A3

5TH DOUBLE

6/3 213.5

6/7 55.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,9>1,10/1,6,10/3,7,13 9,563,522

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,9>1,10/1,6,10/Any Combination 4,382