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Sha Tin · 2022-02-20 · 17:48

Race 10

Class 3 YIELDING 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.24.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHARITY GRACE Closed strongly B 1.24.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum 14 11.0 1-3/4
2 0 COPARTNER AMBITION Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 11 2.4 1-3/4
3 0 OSCAR GLORY CP M Chadwick · F C Lor 13 6.0 3-3/4
4 0 DRAGON FORTUNE Closed strongly TT H Bentley · F C Lor 1 12.0 4
5 0 SUPER TEN CP-/XB/B2 B Shinn · D J Whyte 5 10.0 4
6 0 SUPER DYNAMITE A Badel · P F Yiu 12 8.0 6
7 0 LUCKY GOLD B/H D Moor · K W Lui 3 50.0 6-1/2
8 0 THE HULK Closed strongly K Teetan · C Fownes 2 13.0 7
9 0 CONGRATULATION Closed strongly K C Leung · D A Hayes 6 41.0 8
10 0 STOICISM L Ferraris · R Gibson 9 39.0 9-1/4
11 0 CIRCUIT MIGHTY Led early M L Yeung · K L Man 10 22.0 10-3/4
12 0 BEAUTY NOVA Closed strongly V Borges · J Size 8 44.0 13-1/2
13 0 KASI FARASI TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 4 34.0 14-1/4
14 0 NOWITZKI H T Mo · T P Yung 7 59.0 17-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-20 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on YIELDING going. CHARITY GRACE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-3/4, with COPARTNER AMBITION second and OSCAR GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite COPARTNER AMBITION finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY GRACE—2. COPARTNER AMBITION+1.75L3. OSCAR GLORY+3.75L4. DRAGON FORTUNE+4L5. SUPER TEN+4L6. SUPER DYNAMITE+6L7. LUCKY GOLD+6.5L8. THE HULK+7L9. CONGRATULATION+8L10. STOICISM+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick COPARTNER AMBITION (21.8%) finished 2nd — the winner CHARITY GRACE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 COPARTNER AMBITION 21.8% 4.59 2
2 0 OSCAR GLORY 14.3% 6.97 3
3 0 CHARITY GRACE 10.5% 9.49 1
4 0 THE HULK 10.3% 9.67 8
5 0 SUPER DYNAMITE 8.4% 11.85 6
6 0 SUPER TEN 8.2% 12.19 5
7 0 DRAGON FORTUNE 5.7% 17.51 4
8 0 STOICISM 4.1% 24.25 10
9 0 BEAUTY NOVA 4.1% 24.47 12
10 0 CONGRATULATION 3.8% 26.06 9
11 0 KASI FARASI 3.0% 32.89 13
12 0 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 2.2% 46.03 11
13 0 NOWITZKI 1.8% 56.35 14
14 0 LUCKY GOLD 1.6% 62.25 7
COPARTNER AMBITIONOSCAR GLORYCHARITY GRACE — wonTHE HULKSUPER DYNAMITESUPER TENDRAGON FORTUNESTOICISMBEAUTY NOVACONGRATULATIONKASI FARASICIRCUIT MIGHTYNOWITZKILUCKY GOLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 117.5

PLACE

3 14

8 28.5

13 20.5

QUINELLA

3,8 118.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 52

3,13 36

8,13 99

FORECAST

8,3 361

TIERCE

8,3,13 1,712

TRIO

3,8,13 183

FIRST 4

3,6,8,13 712

QUARTET

8,3,13,6 18,402

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 24

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

9,12,14/F 99,239

9TH DOUBLE

9/3 241.5

9/8 6,106

SIX UP

1,6/3,7/5,12/4,10/9,12/3,8 69,923

6/3/5/4/9/8 12,546,585

1 [Z Purton] —

TREBLE

4/9/3 1,789

4/9/8 22,283