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Happy Valley · 2022-03-02 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 8 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-02 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RED MAJESTY, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by D A Hayes, won by NOSE, with VILLA FIONN second and HORSESAIN BOLT third. The winner led throughout. The 2.4 favourite PRESENCE finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.40.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 RED MAJESTY Wire to wire B/TT 1.40.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 9.4 NOSE
2 8 VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 2 5.5 NOSE
3 5 HORSESAIN BOLT B/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 10.0 5-1/2
4 2 SUNSHINE WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 6 8.0 6
5 6 STORM LEGEND J Moreira · C Fownes 7 5.1 6-3/4
6 1 AMAZING ONE PLUS P/XB/TT D Moor · T P Yung 8 17.0 7
7 3 INCANTO PREPARED E/TT A Badel · J Size 4 30.0 7-1/2
8 4 PRESENCE CP1/TT1 Z Purton · F C Lor 3 2.4 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED MAJESTY2. VILLA FIONN+0.05L3. HORSESAIN BOLT+5.5L4. SUNSHINE WARRIOR+6L5. STORM LEGEND+6.75L6. AMAZING ONE PLUS+7L7. INCANTO PREPARED+7.5L8. PRESENCE+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick STORM LEGEND (30.3%) finished 5th — the winner RED MAJESTY was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 STORM LEGEND 30.3% 3.30 5
2 4 PRESENCE 22.0% 4.55 8
3 1 AMAZING ONE PLUS 13.0% 7.69 6
4 3 INCANTO PREPARED 10.2% 9.82 7
5 8 VILLA FIONN 7.8% 12.88 2
6 5 HORSESAIN BOLT 7.4% 13.45 3
7 2 SUNSHINE WARRIOR 5.1% 19.74 4
8 7 RED MAJESTY 4.3% 23.27 1
STORM LEGENDPRESENCEAMAZING ONE PLUSINCANTO PREPAREDVILLA FIONNHORSESAIN BOLTSUNSHINE WARRIORRED MAJESTY — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 94.5

PLACE

5 26

7 24.5

8 18

QUINELLA

7,8 194.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 100

5,8 65.5

7,8 61.5

FORECAST

7,8 461

TIERCE

7,8,5 2,090

TRIO

5,7,8 428

FIRST 4

2,5,7,8 581

QUARTET

7,8,5,2 13,803

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 51

A1