Happy Valley · 2022-03-02 · 21:17
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-02 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY ARCHANGEL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with JOYFUL GENIUS second and SUPER MISSION third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB 1.10.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 6 | 2.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | JOYFUL GENIUS CP L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 10 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | SUPER MISSION H/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 12 | 9.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | SHADOW RUNNER TT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | HANDSOME VEGGIE D Moor · D A Hayes | D Moor | D A Hayes | 9 | 55.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | MY INTELLIGENT M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 5 | 9.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | SHOWINA B C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 2 | 6.6 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | CONCERTO TT1 A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 7 | 59.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | REGENCY STAR CP A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 3 | 4.9 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | PHENOMENAL COMBO H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 1 | 55.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | NEW ASIA ADVANCE H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 4 | 144.0 | 8-1/4 |
| — | 5 | JAZZ STEED J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 24.5% | 4.09 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | SUPER MISSION | 15.6% | 6.41 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | REGENCY STAR | 15.5% | 6.45 | 9 |
| 4 | 1 | SHOWINA | 10.2% | 9.84 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | SHADOW RUNNER | 9.4% | 10.70 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | JOYFUL GENIUS | 8.8% | 11.30 | 2 |
| 7 | 12 | MY INTELLIGENT | 7.6% | 13.15 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | PHENOMENAL COMBO | 3.5% | 28.26 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | CONCERTO | 2.3% | 42.71 | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | HANDSOME VEGGIE | 2.0% | 51.09 | 5 |
| 11 | 7 | NEW ASIA ADVANCE | 0.6% | 156.76 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 24
PLACE
3 12.5
4 27
10 32.5
QUINELLA
3,10 167
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 44.5
3,10 60
4,10 134
FORECAST
3,10 259
TIERCE
3,10,4 1,432
TRIO
3,4,10 324
FIRST 4
3,4,9,10 421
QUARTET
3,10,4,9 6,268
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A2 —
A3 —
5TH DOUBLE
11/3,5 477.5
11/10 410