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Happy Valley · 2022-03-02 · 21:17

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-02 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY ARCHANGEL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with JOYFUL GENIUS second and SUPER MISSION third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB 1.10.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 6 2.4 1-1/4
2 10 JOYFUL GENIUS CP L Ferraris · D J Hall 10 14.0 1-1/4
3 4 SUPER MISSION H/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 9.1 1-3/4
4 9 SHADOW RUNNER TT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 8 10.0 3-1/4
5 8 HANDSOME VEGGIE D Moor · D A Hayes 9 55.0 3-1/2
6 12 MY INTELLIGENT M F Poon · L Ho 5 9.5 4-1/4
7 1 SHOWINA B C Y Ho · W Y So 2 6.6 5
8 6 CONCERTO TT1 A Hamelin · K H Ting 7 59.0 5-1/4
9 2 REGENCY STAR CP A Badel · C S Shum 3 4.9 6
10 11 PHENOMENAL COMBO H Bentley · C H Yip 1 55.0 7-1/2
11 7 NEW ASIA ADVANCE H W Lai · Y S Tsui 4 144.0 8-1/4
5 JAZZ STEED J Moreira · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY ARCHANGEL2. JOYFUL GENIUS+1.25L3. SUPER MISSION+1.75L4. SHADOW RUNNER+3.25L5. HANDSOME VEGGIE+3.5L6. MY INTELLIGENT+4.25L7. SHOWINA+5L8. CONCERTO+5.25L9. REGENCY STAR+6L10. PHENOMENAL COMBO+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LUCKY ARCHANGEL (24.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 24.5% 4.09 1
2 4 SUPER MISSION 15.6% 6.41 3
3 2 REGENCY STAR 15.5% 6.45 9
4 1 SHOWINA 10.2% 9.84 7
5 9 SHADOW RUNNER 9.4% 10.70 4
6 10 JOYFUL GENIUS 8.8% 11.30 2
7 12 MY INTELLIGENT 7.6% 13.15 6
8 11 PHENOMENAL COMBO 3.5% 28.26 10
9 6 CONCERTO 2.3% 42.71 8
10 8 HANDSOME VEGGIE 2.0% 51.09 5
11 7 NEW ASIA ADVANCE 0.6% 156.76 11
LUCKY ARCHANGEL — wonSUPER MISSIONREGENCY STARSHOWINASHADOW RUNNERJOYFUL GENIUSMY INTELLIGENTPHENOMENAL COMBOCONCERTOHANDSOME VEGGIENEW ASIA ADVANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 24

PLACE

3 12.5

4 27

10 32.5

QUINELLA

3,10 167

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 44.5

3,10 60

4,10 134

FORECAST

3,10 259

TIERCE

3,10,4 1,432

TRIO

3,4,10 324

FIRST 4

3,4,9,10 421

QUARTET

3,10,4,9 6,268

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 16

A2

A3

5TH DOUBLE

11/3,5 477.5

11/10 410